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یکشنبه ۲ آبان ۱۳۹۵ تهران ۱۱:۴۴ - ۲۳ اکتبر ۲۰۱۶

ايران در آستانه يك بحران اقتصادي اجتناب ناپذير: پيش بيني يك كارشناس اقتصاد

فريدون زرنگار، مصاحبه با محمد حسين اديب (اصفهان)

Summary of Today's BroadcastRFE/RL Persian ServiceTuesday, March 12, 2002 - Economic disaster awaits Iran - Khatami in Vienna - Veteran journalist Pourzand "confesses" to ties with Reza Pahlavi - Religious scholar questions leadership review assembly - Anniversary of Saddam's chemical attack on Halabcheh - Impasse over minimum wage - Riotous celebration of an ancient tradition Iranian Economy on Verge of Disaster, says Isfahan University Economist * The convergence of three factors will cripple Iran's economy within a few years, an Isfahan University economics professor predicts. In an interview with RFE/RL, Mohammad Hossein Adib says the number of jobless in Iran will reach 11.6 million within five years. Punitive tariffs for failing to join WTO by 2004 will make it impossible for Iran to export anything but crude oil. And as of winter 2004, Iran will have to pay 1.2 million barrels of oil per day to meet obligations accrued in current buy-back contracts. Domestic consumption, adds Adib, will leave Iran only 400,000 barrels of oil per day to export, lowering the country's annual take from crude sales to $3 billion, or a fourth of the current level. Adib says his four books on Iranian economics sold more than 50,000 copies last year. According to the Christian Science Monitor, tapes of his seminars are widely exchanged by intellectuals and students, just as Ayatollah Khomeini's tapes were before the revolution. Adib tells RFE/RL that people copy his tapes on their own and he has no organization to distribute them. (Fereydoun Zarnegar) Khatami in Vienna: Demonstrators and Detractors * On the second day of IRI President Khatami's visit, demonstrators denounce IRI's record on human rights. Khatami's conservative opponents in Iran continue to hinder his diplomatic overtures by reminding his hosts that he is not the voice of Tehran's foreign policy. (Alireza Taheri) Austrian Press on Khatami's Visit * Review of articles in three major Austrian newspapers about Khatami's trip: Der Standard reports on two economic and custom affairs treaties Khatami signed with Austria, Kurier writes about Khatami's visit with EU's Solana, while Die Furche focuses on the number of security forces Vienna assigned to protect Khatami, reportedly 3400. (Shahram Mirian, Cologne) Reformist Press on D‚tente in Foreign Policy * Review of articles in three reformist Iranian newspapers. (Mahmonir Rahimi) Former Culture Minister is Reformists' Hope in Next Presidential Election * In a press conference in Cyprus where he is attending a conference on religion's role in politics, former culture minister Ataollah Mohajerani says negotiating with the US is not "illogical" for Tehran. AP says he is considered the candidate of the reform faction in IRI's next Presidential elections in 2005. (Alireza Taheri) Mehrangiz Kar interviewed on Second Day of Husband's Trial * Prominent human rights lawyer and activist, Mehrangiz Kar, in Los Angeles for treatment of cancer, breaks her silence in an interview with RFE/RL, denouncing the trial of her husband, journalist Siamak Pourzand, 71, as revenge by IRI's conservative faction for his work with reformist publications since Khatami's election in 1997. Only the Islamic Republic News Agency's daily "Iran" ran reports on Pourzand's trial, quoting him confessing to a host of "crimes," including relations with supporters of Reza Pahlavi and distributing US funds among reform journalists. Mehrangiz Kar says her husband, a prominent journalist before the revolution, energetically supported and advised pro-reform journalists. Pointing to her husband's mysterious abduction by security forces and his four months of solitary confinement in an undisclosed location, Kar says his "confessions" were obtained under duress and psychological pressure. She criticizes the Tehran bar association for its silence on the case. RFE/RL will air the full interview with Kar on Thursday. (Amir-Mosaddegh Katouzian) Assembly of Experts Not Accountable to Voters, Says Religious Scholar * The Assembly of Experts, the constitutional body charged with selection and supervision of the IRI Leader, does not consider itself accountable to voters, says Abolfazl Musavian, a religious scholar in Qom. The head of the Assembly, Ayatollah Meshkini, reportedly told the opening session of the body's closed door meeting this week that God does not grant to people the right to select their religion or to elect the country's Leader. If the Guardians Council were to allow all qualified candidates to stand for election, Musavian tells RFE/RL, the Assembly of Experts would be accountable to the voters. (Mehdi Khalaji) Rejection by Guardians Council Sends Budget Bill to Expediency Council * The unelected Guardians Council once again has rejected the budget the Majles approved for the next Persian year (starting March 20, 2002), making the unelected Expediency Council headed by former President Rafsanjani the final arbiter of the national budget. As the prominent MP Mazarei said last year, the Majles effectively has no say in economic matters. (Fereydoun Khavand, Paris) Chemical Attack on the Kurdish Town Remembered after 14 Years * Kurds in Iran and around the world observe the anniversary of Saddam Hussein's 1986 chemical attack on Halabcheh, in which more than 4000 perished, says prominent Kurdish scholar Salah Suran. He speaks to RFE/RL after attending a ceremony in Tehran's Ferdowsi University, where Majles MP's, writers and artists gathered with Iranian Kurds to commemorate what Suran describes as a disaster. "Many of the survivors are sick with severe bronchitis or with cancer," he says, adding that time has made people more aware of the proportions of the disaster. (Jamshid Zand) Workers and Employers Hit an Impasse over Minimum Wage * Minimum wage negotiations were deadlocked last night, says Parviz Ahmadi, a member of a workers association in Tehran. Workers want to increase the minimum wage from its current 580,000 rials per month to 1.6 million rials, while the employers have so far agreed to pay 800,000 rials, inclusive of housing and other benefits. Labor reps are basing their figures on inflation and the foreign exchange rate, Ahmadi tells RFE/RL in an interview from Tehran. In 1978, the minimum wage in Iran was equivalent to $8 per day, but now is only $3 per day. The High Council on Labor, which had suggested the two-way meeting between labor and employers' reps, will finalize the matter tonight. (Fereydoun Zarnegar) Earlier Fire Feast avoids Revelry Rivalry * To avoid clashing with the Shiite month of mourning, the celebration of the annual feast of fire (Charshanbeh Suri) is being held a week earlier in some parts of the country. This year the lunar month of Muharram coincides with the solar Iranian new-year celebration and the feast of fire. A shopkeeper in the town of Ekbatan near Tehran tells RFE/RL that the entire market is closing down in advance of the crowded street revelry. Letting off Steam at Feast of Fire * The pre-Islamic rite of fire, which involves jumping over bonfires and greeting strangers with offerings of nuts and dried fruits, has turned into a loud and riotous street carnival of fireworks and explosions, accompanied by scattered skirmishes between rioting youth and the police, according to RFE/RL's Ardavan Niknam. Several young people tell RFE/RL that either this week or next week, the bonfires will be stacked in the streets for crowds to gather, regardless of the official warnings from the police. Tehran-based sociologist, Dr. Davar Sheikhavandi says by forbidding a national holiday in the early years of the revolution, IRI has turned a peaceful ceremony into an annual riot. He suggests that the police should ask neighborhoods themselves to organize and control the proceedings. (Ardavan Niknam) WORLD * More then 50 die in Middle East violence. (Jamshid Chalangi, Cairo) * War against terrorism enters a new phase, President Bush said. (Homayoun Majd, Washington) * Karzai will accompany Afghan king Mohammad Zaher on his return to Afghanistan from Rome after 25 years. (Ahmad Ra'fat, Rome) ARTS & IDEAS Persian Love Stories Series: Zohreh & Manuchehr * RFE/RL's Sadroddin Elahi continues his series based on Persian classic poet Iraj Mirza's Zohreh and Manuchehr, on the 76th anniversary's of the poet's death. In a forward to the series, RFE/RL's editor says the book is based on the same Greek tale used by Shakespeare in his "Venus and Adonis." (Sadroddin Elahi, Iraj Gorgin) Book Reviews * In his weekly program, RFE/RL's book reviewer Kamran Fani discusses new books published in Iran, including "Beyond Post-Modernism," "Biographic Dictionary of Modern Iranian Political and Military Personalities," Persian translation of "La Madre" by Grazia Deleda. Contemporary Persian Poetry * Afghan poet, Ms. Farideh Anvar reads a poem by prominent Persian poet, Hamid Mosaddegh.

دكتر محمد حسين اديب، استاد اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان، پيش بيني مي كند تا چهار سال ديگر مجموعه اي از بحران هاي همزمان، اقتصاد ايران را فلج خواهد كرد. دكتر اديب در مصاحبه با راديو آزادي مي گويد اولين بحران ناشي از لشگر بيكاران است كه با توجه به توانايي موجود اقتصاد كشور براي توليد شغل و احتساب 3 ميليون و 600 هزار بيكار فعلي، ظرف 5 سال آينده، تعداد آنها به 11 ميليون و 600 هزار نفر خواهد رسيد. وي مي افزايد در صورتي كه ايران ظرف سه سال آينده به سازمان تجارت جهاني ملحق نشود، تعرفه هاي تنبيهي، صادرات را براي ايران غيرممكن خواهد ساخت و بهاي دلار به 4 هزار الي 5 هزار تومان افزايش پيدا خواهد كرد. دكتر اديب مي افزايد قراردادهاي بيع متقابل براي توليد نفت ايجاب مي كند كه از زمستان سال 1382 به بعد ايران روزانه يك ميليون و 200 هزار بشكه نفت پرداخت كند. با احتساب مصرف فرآورده هاي نفتي در داخل كشور، براي ايران بيش از روزي 400 هزار بشكه نفت صادراتي باقي نمي ماند كه حاصل سالانه آن چيزي بيش از 3 ميليارد دلار خواهد بود و اقتصاد كشور در چنين نقطه اي از كنترل خارج مي شود. دكتر اديب مي گويد چهار كتاب او در سال گذشته بيش از 50 هزار نسخه فروش داشته اند و نوار گفتار هاي او را خود مردم توزيع مي كنند. روزنامه كريستين ساينس مانيتور نوشت اين نوار ها در تهران پنهاني دست به دست مي گردد.

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