لینک‌های قابلیت دسترسی

جمعه ۷ آبان ۱۳۹۵ تهران ۰۸:۳۷ - ۲۸ اکتبر ۲۰۱۶

توافق سه جانبه انتقال گاز تركمنستان از طريق افغانستان و پاكستان: ضربه اي هولناك بر اقتصاد ايران

فريدون خاوند (گزارش اقتصادي روز)

Summary of Today's BroadcastRFE/RL Persian ServiceSunday, June 02, 2002 - Turkmen-Afghanistan-Pakistan gas pipeline - Leader Ignores MP's plea to free students - Social pathologies conference - President's right to monitor violations of constitution - British businessmen in Iran - Culture ministry's book censor in court Turkmenistan Gas Pipeline Pact with Pakistan and Afghanistan: A Blow to Iran's Economy * Last week's three-way agreement to build a 1500 km gas pipeline from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan for sale met little reaction from the Islamic Republic officials. But the pipeline is another setback for Iran's efforts to become a route for Caspian basin oil and gas to Europe and Asia. Tehran University political science professor Sadeq Zibakalam sees the Turkmen gas pipeline deal a devastating blow to Iran's economy. Sanctioned by the US, and backed by $2 billion to $4 billion in international investment, the agreement points to Afghanistan as a new player in the Caspian energy race, competing with Turkey, which had seemed to be the winner. Iran continues to be in the loser's corner. (Fereydoun Khavand, Paris) Leader Ignores MP's Public Plea to Pardon 8 Students * During a visit by MP's to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei yesterday, reformist MP Ali-Akbar Musavi-Khoini publicly asked him to pardon eight activists jailed for their participation in the July 1999 student protests against the judiciary's closing of Khoini's newspaper "Salam." But the Leader ignored Khoini's plea. Khoini, a leader of the 1979 hostage-takers, interrupted the Leader but was allowed to speak after the Leader finished his address. Musavi-Khoini said he told the Leader that elements within the establishment are disappointed and see themselves faced with a political blockade. He also told the Leader that he has failed to listen to the lawmakers. (Alireza Taheri) Social Pathologies Conference in Tehran * Iran's Sociology Society held Tehran's first conference on social pathologies yesterday with the help of ministries of culture and interior, Tehran municipal government, police and prisons organization. Tehran-based economist Fariburz Raisdana, who took part in the event tells RFE/RL that drug addiction is Iran's biggest social ill. (Golnaz Esfandiari) Guardians Member Questions Khatami's Role to Monitor Constitution Violations * Mohsen Esmaili, a member of the Guardians Council, said President Khatami needed the Council's permission for establishing a committee to monitor violations of the Constitution. Ahmad Salamatian, a Paris-based political commentator, tells RFE/RL that the President's role, the role of the committee he has established in 1997 to report on constitutional violations, is ceremonial, since in the 1989 revision of the Islamic Republic constitution, the role of regulating the three branches of government was taken away from the president and given to the Supreme Leader. (Mehdi Khalaji) British Businessmen Visit Iran * Retired British banker Brian Constant, director general of London's Middle East Association, who led a delegation of British businessmen in a recent visit to Iran, tells RFE/RL that British companies see a lot of business opportunities in Iran. He says the 1 to 14 ratio in the balance of Iran-Britain trade to improve in Iran's favor. Iranian exporters need to study the needs of their targeted markets and upgrade their packaging, he adds. Court Interrogates Culture Ministry's Chief Book Censor * Press court interrogated Majid Sayyadi, the official in charge of the culture ministry's book censorship several times last week about the publication permissions issued to the four books which were pulled from the market last month. Two of the books deal with Islamic views on women; another is the latest by the jailed journalist Akbar Ganji, and the last one is an alternative take on the concept of martyrdom. Nahid Tavsoli, a scholar of women issues in Iran and editor of the monthly Nafeh, tells RFE/RL that pulling books off the market, as the judiciary did in four cases last month, devastates the publishers economically, but makes the banned books instant hits in the underground market where they trade for many times their cover price. (Mehdi Khalaji) Iranian Refugees Federation in Denmark Sues Conservative Parties * Mahmud Qazvini, head of the Federation of Iranian Refugees in Denmark, tells RFE/RL that his organization is suing the Danish right wing party leaders for their biased comments against Iranians. (Golnaz Esfandiari) Interview with Pro-Reform Journalist Mashallah Shamsolvaezin Mashallah Shamsolvaezin, editor of four banned reformist newspapers, in Europe for a series of lectures, comments about reforms, jailed activists, US relations and banned newspapers in an interview with RFE/RL. * The reform movement has slowed down to meet the capacity of the ruling conservatives for reform; but there is hope in the future, since more than 1830 civil institutions have been licensed to begin operations. * The recent release from jail of the nationalist-religious political activists showed that there was no basis in the judiciary's charge of subversion against them. * Mutual accusations have enlarged the wall of mistrust between the US and the Islamic Republic, making a sudden rapprochement impossible. Dialogues between the elites of the two countries can pave the way for future official negotiations. (Shahram Mirian) WORLD * Pakistan's Musharraf will meet 16 Asian leaders in Kazakhstan, including India's prime minister. (Shahran Tabari, London) * Israelis arrest a group of Palestinians in Nablus, as EU envoy Havier Solanas meets with Yasir Arafat and Sharon. (Jamshid Chalangi, Cairo) * Former Afghan king cancels visit to Kandahar and Mazar-i-Sharif due to illness. (Golnaz Esfandiari) * President Bush said in his speech at the West Point academy that the US will begin preemptive strikes to stop terrorists. (Alireza Taheri) * Saudi Arabia sentences an undisclosed number who were tried for involvement in the 1996 bombing of the US military residential compound at Khobar. (Farideh Rahbar, Cairo) * Russia is prepared to boost its strategic cooperation with China, says Chinese President Xiang Zemin after a meeting here with Russia's defense minister Sergey Ivanov. (Shahram Tehrani, Beijing) * Britain celebrates the 50th anniversary of the Queen's coronation. (Shahran Tabari, London) * NATO forces march alongside Italian troops during Italy's June 2nd parade. (Ahmad Ra'fat, Rome) * RFE/RL's Middle East Magazine: 2500-year old Iranian artifacts were discovered at the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea; Britain agrees to return 224 ancient artifacts to Egypt; Syria permits for the first time the performance of a play critical of the government. (Farideh Rahbar, Jamshid Chalangi, Cairo) FEATURES, ARTS AND IDEAS Iranian Writer's German Play about Clash of Cultures * Alireza Jalali, writer and director of the German play "With the Burned Caravan" tells RFE/RL that his play, based on the true story of the torching of a Turkish family of five by a young German extremist, is a comedy that makes the German audience see themselves from the point of view of a Muslim immigrant. (Shahram Mirian, Cologne) New Political Thought in Contemporary Iran: Haji Baba-ye Esfahani * Paris-based political history scholar Javad Tabatabi reviews Mirza Habib Esfahani's translation of James Morier's Haji Baba, which paved the way for a new Persian language for expressing contemporary concepts. (Nazi Azima) History of the European Renaissance: Blossoming of Political Thought in Europe * In the series on the aftermath of the Renaissance, Golam-Hossein Mirza-Saleh, a Tehran-based political science professor, discusses the ideas of Spinoza. (Nazi Azima) Classical Love Stories: Yusef va Zoleikha * Sadredin Elahi continues his recitation of the Yusef va Zeleikha story based on poetry by Nuredin Jami. Interview of the Week: Farokh Ghaffari on Battuta * Paris-based veteran scholar of Iranian culture and history Farokh Ghaffari discusses the travel writing of the Muslim 14th Century world traveler Ibn Battuta who visited Iran. Ghaffari compares Battuta's observations in Iran with those of the Venetian traveler Marco Polo during a conversation with RFE/RL's commentator, sociologist Ehsan Naraqi. (Jean Khakzad)دكتر فريدون خاوند (راديوآزادي): در قرن نوزدهم و آغاز قرن بيستم ميلادي، آسياي مركزي در كنار افغانستان و بخشي از سرزمين هاي خاوري ايران صحنة زور آزمايي بزرگي بود ميان بريتانيا، كه به دليل تسلطش بر دريا ها نهنگ لقب گرفته بود، و روسيه، كه با توجه به قدرتش در خشكي ها، فيل خوانده ميشد. در كشمكش ميان نهنگ و فيل، كه تاريخ نگاران آن را «بازي بزرگ» توصيف كرده‌اند، بريتانيا با تمام نوان تلاش ميكرد از نزديك شدن روسيه به آبهاي گرم و شبه جزيرة هند جلوگيري كند. امروز حوزة درياي مازندران عرصة «بازي بزرگ» تازه‌اي است كه اهميت استراتژيك آن اگر از بازي پيشين بيشتر نباشد، بدون ترديد كمتر نيست. سخن بر سر شكلگيري تازة رابطة قدرت ها در اين منطقه و، به موازات آن، مانور هاي بزرگ اقتصادي بر سر بهره‌برداري از منابع نفت و گاز حوزة درياي مازندران و چگونگي انتقال آن به بازار هاي جهاني است. از لحاظ نصب شبكه هاي انتقال نفت و گاز، كه در ترسيم راه هاي آتي سرمايه‌گذاري و بازرگاني نقش حياتي دارد، تركيه تاكنون برندة اصلي و ايران بازندة اصلي بوده است. امروز به نظر ميرسد كه بازيگر تازه‌اي در اين عرصه سربلند ميكند به نام افغانستان و ايران بار ديگر خود را در جايگاه بازندگان مي بيند. سخن بر سر يادداشت تفاهمي است كه پنجشنبه سي ام ماه مه ميان رهبران افغانستان، پاكستان و تركمنستان به امضا رسيد و بر پاية آن قرار است گاز حاصل از منابع غني تركمنستان از راه يك شاه‌لولة هزار و پانصد كيلومتري پس از عبور از خاك افغانستان به پاكستان و ساير نقاط جهان برود. جزييات اين توافق سه جانبه هنوز مشخص نيست، ولي بر پاية گزارش هاي نخستين به نظر ميرسد كه طرح انتقال از پشتيباني فعال واشينگتن برخوردار است و زمينة تأمين اعتبارات مالي دو تا چهار ميليارد دلاري آن با پشتيباني شماري از نهاد هاي بين‌المللي از جمله بانك جهاني و بانك توسعة آسيايي فراهم ميآيد. ايران كه نبرد بر سر انتقال نفت جمهوري آذربايجان را به تركيه باخت، در قبال شاه لولة افغانستان چه واكنشي دارد؟ محسن امين زاده، معاون آسيا و اقيانوسية وزارت خارجة جمهوري اسلامي، در گفتگويي با روزنامة «نوروز» چاپ تهران ميگويد كه ايران با اين طرح، اگر توجيه اقتصادي داشته باشد، هيچ مخالفتي ندارد و حتي خوشحال خواهد شد كه افغانستان فقير بتواند از اين راه درآمدي به دست آورد. در عوض بخش رو به گسترشي از افكار عمومي ايران فروريزي پي در پي مواضع اين كشور را در آسياي مركزي و قفقاز يك شكست بزرگ ملي داند، قابل مقايسه با فاجعه اي كه در پي امضاي عهد نامه هاي گلستان و تركمانچاي براي ايران پيش آمد. روزنامة «آفتاب يزد» چاپ تهران در شمارة امروز خود به نقل از صادق زيبا كلام استاد دانشگاه، توافق سه جانبه ميان تركمنستان، افغانستان و پاكستان را ضربه اي هولناك بر منافع ايران توصيف مي كند.

توافق سه جانبه بر سر انتقال گاز تركمنستان به پاكستان از راه افغانستان براي توزيع به كشورهاي ديگر، از جمله هندوستان، كه پنجشنبه 30 ماه مي در اسلام آباد به امضا رسيد، مرحلة تازه‌اي است در صف بندي قدرت هاي اقتصادي و سياسي در حوزة درياي مازندران. جمهوري اسلامي كه نبرد بر سر انتقال نفت آذربايجان به تركيه را باخت، در قبال شاه لوله افغانستان نيز واكنشي نشان نداد. اما صادق زيباكلام، استاد علوم سياسي دانشگاه تهران، آن را ضربه اي هولناك بر اقتصاد ايران مي داند و افكار عمومي ايران، ناكامي پي درپي ايران در آسياي مركزي و قفقاز را يك شكست بزرگ ملي تلقي مي كند. براي مطالعه متن كامل گزارش راديوآزادي در باره اهميت اين توافق و تاثيري كه مي تواند بر ايران داشته باشد، دگمه متن فارسي را كليك بزنيد.

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