لینک‌های قابلیت دسترسی

سه شنبه ۱۶ آذر ۱۳۹۵ تهران ۱۵:۵۶ - ۶ دسامبر ۲۰۱۶

موسسه رتبه بندي "موديز" نمره مساعد اعتبار ايران را به توصيه آمريكا پس گرفت


فريدون خاوند (گزارش اقتصادي روز)

Summary of Today's BroadcastRFE/RL Persian ServiceTuesday, June 04, 2002 - Moody's withdraws Iran's ratings - Khatami denounces dictatorship in the name of Islam - Khomeini's cult of personality - Peyman denies compromise with conservatives - Exile theater festival in Paris Moody's Withdraws Iran's Sovereign Rating * Moody's Investors Service on Monday withdrew Iran's sovereign ratings in response to US concerns that the ratings were "inconsistent" with American economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic. RFE/RL's Paris-based economic commentator Fereydoun Khavand sees the move as an important development in US-Iran relations. The ratings were withdrawn just as Iran prepares to issue $300 million to $500 million worth of euro bonds through two European banks. Moody's had recently given Iran the relatively favorable B-plus rating. "Axis of Evil" Fallout * Reuters's Tehran correspondent writes that President Bush's inclusion of Iran in the "Axis of Evil" has caused President Khatami to join conservatives who oppose any contact with the US. (Fariba Mavedat) Khatami Rejects Dictatorship in the Name of Islam * On the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's death, President Khatami said "a few" use Islam and Khomeini to impose their own views on the nation. Echoing the grievances of Majles reformists, Khatami warned against dictatorship and condemned censorship of the press. (Siavash Ardalan) Ayatollah Khomeini: From Revolutionary Leader to Saint * Thirteen years after his death, even advocates of democracy and secular government in Iran avoid directly criticizing Ayatollah Khomeini, whose religious aura sets him apart from other late, revolutionary leaders such as Mao, Kim, or Ataturk. Paris-based commentator Ahmad Salamatian says this sanctification, which Khomeini did not object to, started when the official media began to refer to him as Imam--a departure from Shiite theology, which until then recognized only 12 Imams. Believers still seek cures for their illnesses by tying handkerchiefs to the golden railing around his tomb. Germany-based political commentator Mehdi Khanbaba-Tehrani says the legacy of Ayatollah Khomeini is the decrees he gave to powerful clerics to control large-scale economic institutions owned by religious charities and endowments. He tells RFE/RL that by establishing the rule of Islamic jurists, or "velayat-e faqih," Khomeini's imposition of the clergy on the government laid the grounds for oppression, a clash with modernity, and the destruction of civil institutions. (Ardavan Niknam) History According to the Government * On the anniversary of the June 4, 1962 anti-Shah uprising in Iran, there is still no accurate historical account of this and other historical events in state-controlled textbooks and media. (Mehdi Khalaji) US Should Engage Iran, Says GWU Professor * Writing in the Christian Science Monitor, the George Washington University professor Amitai Etzioni, says the US should engage Iran slowly, instead of trying to replace the Islamic Republic. (Fariba Mavedat) RFE/RL's Interview with Nationalist-Religious Leader Peyman * In an interview with RFE/RL, nationalist-religious coalition member Habibollah Peyman, who was freed on bail after more than a year in jail, denies rumors of a secret compromise between the coalition members and the conservative faction of the regime. An interview with Peyman distributed by the pro-reform student news agency ISNA bolstered the rumor, which had begun last month after Freedom Movement of Iran leader Ebrahim Yazdi was not arrested on his return to Iran. Peyman tells RFE/RL that the coalition would not compromise on its demand for personal and social freedoms, though it is possible some conservatives may become allied with certain reformists who believe in a government-directed democracy. (Fereydoun Zarnegar) Third Annual Exile Theater Festival in Paris * Javad Dadsetan, founding director of Paris-based Exile Theater Festival tells RFE/RL that in the festival's third year, French, Turkish and Polish theater groups joined Iranians in exile in sold-out performances. (Jean Khakzad, Paris) WORLD * Indian prime minister says India will not talk to Pakistan until it stops cross-border terrorism. (Alireza Taheri, Prague; Shahran Tabari, London) * Sixteen nations in Almaty attending the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia agree to cooperate against terrorism and not to support "freedom movements." (Mani Kasravi, Moscow) * Qos Zalmai, head of the Afghan Journalists Foundation tells RFE/RL that names of those who would represent Afghans living in Europe and the US at next week's emergency supreme council meeting in Kabul have not been announced. (Shirin Famili) * Afghan air transport minister Zalmai Rasul, in Paris for an official visit, tells RFE/RL that his trip is a part of the Afghan government's effort to rebuild airports and acquire airplanes with the help of France and Canada. (Jean Khakzad, Paris) * Lebanese people are afraid that their country might again fall victim to Middle East factional conflicts, writes Jane's Foreign Report. (Fariba Mavedat) * Italian socialists' plan for Middle East peace was approved at a gathering of world socialist parties, attended by Israeli socialists and Al-Fath representatives. (Ahmad Ra'fat, Rome) * President Bush, in a letter to Azerbaijan president, confirmed the US support for the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey oil pipeline. Washington-based Caspian Sea energy expert Bahman Aghai-Diba tells RFE/RL that in the past decade, the US has tried to prevent passage of the Caspian oil through Iran and Russia. The US also wants oil and gas from the Caspian to reach world markets as soon as possible, in order to end the heavy reliance on oil from the Persian Gulf and the OPEC. (Homayoun Majd, Washington) * The Netherlands, Denmark and Austria begin checking pork imported from Germany for possible contamination with a carcinogen previously found in German chicken. (Shahram Mirian, Cologne) * Britain celebrates the 50th anniversary of Queen's coronation. (Shahran Tabari, London) ARTS AND IDEAS RFE/RL's Daily Coverage of Soccer World Cup * Round up of today's World Cup games by RFE/RL's soccer commentator. (Mehrdad Masudi, Seoul) Love Stories from the Shahnameh: Siavash va Rudabeh * Sadredin Elahi continues his recitation of the Siavash va Rudabeh story based on Ferdowsi's epic the Shahnameh. Weekly Book Review * RFE/RL's Tehran-based book critic Kamran Fani reviews four books published in Tehran during the past week. Book Reading: Goli Taraqi * Prominent short story writer Goli Taraqi reads selections from her latest collection "Jay-e Digar" (Another Place). Classical Love Stories: Yusef va Zoleikha * Sadredin Elahi continues his recitation of the Yusef va Zoleikha story based on poetry by Abdolrahman Jami. Poetry in Persian Music: Nader Nader-pour * RFE/RL's music critic Mahmud Khoshnam reviews music written by major national composers on poetry by the late contemporary poet, Nader Nader-pour. One Book, One Authur: Shahrnush Parsipur * Berkley-based novelist Shahrnush Parsipur talks to RFE/RL's book critic Bahman Bastani about her latest book Shiva, a science fiction novel. Poetry Reading: Rudaki * RFE/RL's Iraj Gorgin performs a poem by Rudaki Samarqandi.فريدون خاوند (راديوآزادي): آنچه دوشنبه سوم ماه ژوئن 2002 در روابط آژانس معروف آمريكايي موديز و جمهوري اسلامي ايران پيش آمد، به عنوان يك رويداد مهم و بي سابقه در تاريخ كشمكش هاي اقتصادي بين‌المللي به ثبت خواهد رسيد. موديز، كه در ارزيابي درجة خطرپذيري كشور ها تخصص دارد، اعلام كرد كه به درخواست مقام هاي آمريكايي، رتبة نسبتا مساعد «بي-2» را كه در سلسله ‌مراتب كشور ها از لحاظ خطر پذيري مالي براي ايران در نظر گرفته بود، پس مي گيرد. واشنگتن مي گويد كه اين رتبه‌بندي از سوي موديز مي تواند مقررات ايالات متحدة آمريكا را در زمينة اعمال مجازات هاي اقتصادي عليه ايران، نقض كند. اين رويداد از كجا آب مي خورد و چه پيامد هايي براي ايران دارد؟ موديز، آژانس نامدار آمريكايي، در ردة چند موسسة انگشت شمار معتبري است كه در مقياس بين‌المللي درجة خطر پذيري كشور ها و بنگاه هاي اقتصادي را اندازه ميگيرند و يا، به عبارت ديگر، بر پاية شاخص هاي فني، به آنها نمره مي دهند. اين رتبه‌بندي، جايگاه كشور ها را در سلسله مراتب اعتماد و اعتبار بين‌المللي مشخص ميكند : آيا مي توان به اين يا آن كشور كالا فروخت، يا در آن سرمايه‌گذاري كرد، يا به آن وام داد؟ براي پاسخگويي به اين پرسش ها، آژانس هايي از نوع موديز نقش مشاور را دارند و ارزيابي آنها بر تصميم گيري هاي بين‌المللي تأثير ميگذارد. موديز دربارة ايران چه مي گويد؟ ميدانيم كه اوضاع اقتصادي دروني ايران آشفته است، ولي وضعيت حساب هاي خارجي آن در موقعيت نسبتا مساعدي است. به بيان ديگر با توجه به رونق نسبي بازار نفت در دو سال و نيم گذشته، ايران اصل و فرع بدهي هاي خارجي خود را به موقع پرداخته و از مازاد بازرگاني قابل ملاحظه‌اي نيز برخوردار شده است. آژانس موديز با در نظر گرفتن اين عوامل، رتبة اعتباري ايران را در رديف «بي-2» قرار داده كه در ميان بيست و يك رتبة ممكن، در رديف پانزدهم قرار دارد. بر پاية گزارش هاي تأييد نشده، به نظر مي رسد كه موديز در نظر داشت همانند همتاي انگليسي خود «فيچ»، نمرة ايران را بالاتر هم ببرد و اگر چنين مي شد، اين كشور از لحاظ اعتباري و امكان مراجعه به بازار هاي مالي بين‌المللي، در وضعيت مناسب تري قرار مي گرفت. در اين شرايط واشنگتن، كه تهران را فعال ترين كشور حامي تروريسم مي داند، از موديز خواسته است رتبه بندي ايران را پس بگيرد، با اين استدلال كه اين رتبه‌بندي ممكن است قانون تحريم آمريكا عليه جمهوري اسلامي را نقض كند. رتبه بندي ايران از سوي موديز درست زماني متوقف مي شود كه جمهوري اسلامي، براي نخستين بار پس از انقلاب 1357، قصد دارد در آيندة نزديك، با همكاري دو بانك اروپايي، سيصد تا پانصد ميليون دلار اوراق قرضه در اروپا منتشر كند. ارتباط ميان اين دو رويداد روشن تر از آفتاب است.

موسسه موديز Moody's Investment Service كه در درجه گذاري اعتبار شركت ها و كشورها تخصص دارد، اعلام كرد كه رتبه بندي حكومت ايران را متوقف كرده است و نمره مساعدي را كه پيش از اين از لحاظ ريسك مالي به ايران داده بود، پس مي گيرد. اقدام آژانس موديز به عنوان يك رويداد مهم در كشمكش هاي تهران و واشنگتن به ثبت خواهد رسيد. رتبه بندي ايران از سوي موديز درست زماني متوقف مي شود كه جمهوري اسلامي، براي نخستين بار پس از انقلاب 1357، قصد دارد در آيندة نزديك، با همكاري دو بانك اروپايي، 300 تا 500 ميليون دلار اوراق قرضه در اروپا منتشر كند.براي مطالعه گزارش راديوآزادي در باره پيامدهاي اين اقدام براي اقتصاد ايران، دگمه متن فارسي را كليك بزنيد.

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