لینک‌های قابلیت دسترسی

چهارشنبه ۱۷ آذر ۱۳۹۵ تهران ۰۱:۲۱ - ۷ دسامبر ۲۰۱۶

پذيرش واقعيت دستيابي جمهوري اسلامي به سلاح هسته اي در آينده و لزوم به کارگيري سياست بازدارندگي از سوي آمريکا، از ديد يک استاد آمريکايي


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Summary of Iran Stories in Today&apos;s BroadcastsBehnam NateghiTuesday, August 12, 2003 <b>Deter Iran from Using Nuclear Arms</b> • Professor of Government and Politics at the George Mason University <b>Mark Katz</b> tells <b>Radio Farda</b> that the US successfully used deterrence to ward off nuclear attacks by major nuclear powers, such as the Soviet Union and China. He said between invasion of Iran, bombing Iran&apos;s nuclear sites and deterring Iran from using its nuclear capability, the deterrence option is the cheapest and most effective. (Bijan Farhoodi) <b>Guardians Council Rejects UN Convention on Women&apos;s Rights</b> • The conservative Guardians Council rejected a Majles legislation that would have given partial approval to the anti-discrimination measures in the 1979 UN convention on women&apos;s rights. The rejected bill did not amount to full ratification of the convention; however the Guardians saw it as undermining the strict interpretation of Islamic law. The Majles&apos; approval of the government&apos;s bill sparked sharp criticism from conservative religious circles against the Majles. Conservative cleric Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi said the bill was at least 90 percent against Islam. (Ali Sajjadi, Bijan Farhoodi) • The society of the Qom seminarians joined the chorus of conservative groups who continued issuing condemnations against the Majles for its partial ratification of the convention. (Ali Sajjadi) <b>Special Report: Interior Ministry and Guardians Clash over Election Supervision Ofices</b> • Interior ministry called the Guardians Council&apos;s intelligence gathering offices in provincial centers illegal. The election supervision offices were set up to investigate potential applicants of candidacy in the upcoming Majles elections. • Tehran-based journalist <b>Firouz Gouran</b> says when the Guardians Council budget increased by several folds, it became clear that it planned to use the additional funds for these offices. He says interior minister&apos;s order to provincial governors to stop “illegal” operation of the Guardians&apos; offices came too late. Despite Majles objections, the budget for the offices had been approved by the same government of which the interior minister is a member. He says the Guardians Council played it openly and made it clear that it will use the extra funds to suppress the reformists. He predicts that the conservatives will takeover the next Majles, but the call for reform will become more widespread and louder within the society, and after a short period of relative freedom, suppression of descent will resume with greater force. He says through the struggle of the next four years, the future form of government will be decided. • Tehran University political science professor <b>Sadeq Zibakalam</b> tells <b>Radio Farda</b> that using the Guardians&apos; power to vet candidacy applicants, the conservatives will try to wrest the Majles majority from the reformists. He adds that he sees little chance of success for the reformists in the 2004 Majles elections. Many leftist, pro-Khatami and alternative thinkers will be rejected. And, he predicts, nearly half of the 28 million voters who participated in the last Majles elections will stay home next during the 2004 elections. • The voter indifference and low turnout will not help the reformists, Tehran-based journalist <b>Ali Safai-far</b>, secretary of the society for defense of press freedoms, tells <b>Radio Farda</b>. He adds that the reformists should continue their efforts by promoting the reform concept through education and cultural activities in the hopes that reforms could materialize for future generations. He adds for the reformists losing the Majles elections will not mean exiting the government. The reformists&apos; mission is a cultural and social one. Their defeat in the past six years was due to the lack of social and cultural basis in the society for reforms, he adds. (Fereydoun Zarnegar) • The judiciary&apos;s spokesman Gholamhossein Elham said interior ministry does not have authority to judge the legality of the Guardians Councils election supervision offices. Interior ministry&apos;s spokesperson Jahanbakhsh Khanjani said judiciary&apos;s spokesman cannot comment as the prosecutor general. (Ardavan Niknam) <b>Health Ministry to Distribute Clean Syringes Among the Addicts</b> • Special mobile units formed by the health ministry will distribute clean hypodermic syringes to addicts, health ministry official Mohsen Vazirian said today. The units will exchange new syringes with the addicts&apos; old syringes. Official estimates put the number of addicts at 2 million. (Bijan Farhoodi) • Yale University&apos;s epidemiology professor <b>Dr. Kaveh Khoshnud</b>, who recently conducted an AIDS study in Iran, tells <b>Radio Farda</b> that syringe exchange has shown to be an effective way for curbing the spread of HIV and Hepatitis viruses. (Ali Sajjadi) <b>Azam Taleqani Ends Sit-In at Evin&apos;s Gate</b> • Secretary-general of the society of Islamic revolution&apos;s women Azam Taleqani ended her three-hour sit-in at the gate of the Evin prison. She said she protested against the continued detention of four nationalist-religious coalition&apos;s activists and others, including Abbas Abdi and Hashem Aqajari. (Bijan Farhoodi) • Lawyer of the jailed nationalist-religious coalition activists Mohammad Sharif expressed concern about the conditions of his clients&apos; detention. He said the aggressive treatment of the detainees during a recent family visit was an indication of their difficult conditions in jail. He said after two months, none of the lawyers have been allowed to meet their clients. (Ali Sajjadi) • Two months after their arrests, relatives of nationalist-religious coalition activists Behruz Teyrani, Reza Alijani, Taqi Rahmani and Hoda Saber were allowed to visit them in jail. The visit was delayed for hours, because the Evin prison&apos;s computer. The detainees complained about their condition during the visits, which were supervised by prison officials. The relatives said they were told that giving interviews about the detainees to <b>Radio Farda</b> would be considered a national security crime. (Nima Tamadon) <b>Iran and Pakistan Discuss Anti-Drug Cooperation</b> • Senior Iranian and Pakistan law enforcement officers held a three-day conference in Tehran to discuss ways to boost cooperation to stop drug trafficking. Director of public relations of the anti-drug campaign headquarters Mohammad-Ali Hashemi said the two nations face common threats and have common interests. Spokesman of the Pakistan anti-drug police Eskandar Ali said since the fall of the Taleban, opium trade increased in Afghanistan, and western governments have failed to destroy even one of the many heroine production labs in Afghanistan. He said drug smuggling activity between Iran and Pakistan is greatest in the Baluchestan area, where 70 percent of the people are armed, making law enforcement impossible. (Arash Qavidel) <b>Iran Gives the Saudis the Runaround over Al Qaeda Extradition</b> • Iran has been giving us the runaround about the al Qaeda personnel in that country, and for months Iranian officials denied knowing their identities, the <i>Washington Post</i> quotes a Saudi counterterrorism official. Among the al Qaeda members being held in what Iranian officials describe as "safe houses" are Saad bin Laden, who was being groomed to succeed his father, Osama bin Laden, as al Qaeda&apos;s leader, and Saif Adel, an Egyptian described by U.S. officials as the terrorist network&apos;s security chief, writes the <i>Washington Post</i>. (Leyli Arman) <b>Mayor Says Tehran Depends on Air Rights for 80 Percent of Budget</b> • Tehran&apos;s new mayor Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad, appointee of the conservative city council, criticized his predecessors for increasing the city budget by one hundred times in only one decade, and making it dependent on the sale of air rights to high-rise developers. He said in the past three years, selling building permits paid for 82 percent of the city&apos;s budget. He also criticized powerful government organizations for building high rises within the city without obtaining permit from the city. (Bahman Bastani) <b>Expediency Council to Develop Regime&apos;s Press Policy</b> • The Expediency Council began drafting the regime&apos;s comprehensive policy for dealing with the press. Tehran-based journalist <b>Faramarz Qarabaghi</b> tells <b>Radio Farda</b> that the press community and the government expect the Expediency Council&apos;s policy recommendations would end the current crisis, which has increased in the recent months with the rising wave of the journalists&apos; arrests. (Farin Asemi) <b>Khatami Sees Iran in Transition</b> • In a speech to the representatives of 850 youth services NGO&apos;s, President Khatami said he was still hopeful about reforms. He added that the society was in a difficult, transitional stage and invited the young people to have patience. (Fereydoun Zarnegar) <b>Shahid Beheshti University to Dismiss 50 Students Active in Pro-Democracy</b> • The disciplinary committee of the Shahid Beheshti University punished 50 students active in pro-democracy demonstrations with two-semester suspension, ban from the dorms and dismissal offers. (Keyvan Hosseini) <b>Iran-Khodro Denies Selling Out to French Peugeot</b> • Officials of industries ministry&apos;s Sazeman Gostaresh San&apos;yeh (industries&apos; development organization) denied rumors that France&apos;s Peugeot has bought a controlling interest in Iran-Khodro, Iran&apos;s largest automaker. Gostaresh is Iran-Khodrow&apos;s majority shareholder. Auto industry expert <b>Dariush Mohajer</b> tells <b>Radio Farda</b> that the takeover rumor cannot be true, since Iran-Khodrow is now in negotiations with Renault and Nissan to develop a new platform, since Peugeot declined to participate. (Keyvan Hosseini) . ليلي صدر (راديو فردا): احتمال دستيابي ايران به سلاح اتمي همچنان مورد توجه جهانيان است. دولت آمريكا مي گويد ايران فعالانه درصدد كسب سلاحهاي هسته اي است، ولي جمهوري اسلامي مي گويد برنامه هسته ايش صرفا براي مقاصد صلح آميز برق است. در اين ميان يك استاد آمريكايي به واشنگتن توصيه كرده است كه اين واقعيت را بپذيرد كه ايران سرانجام داراي بمب اتمي خواهد شد و سياست خود را در قبال ايران بر اين اساس قرار دهد، و بر عامل بازدارندگي تاكيد ورزد. همكارم بيژن فرهودي با اين استاد آمريكايي كه مارك كتس نام دارد، مصاحبه اي انجام داده است كه مي شنويم. بيژن فرهودي(راديو فردا): آقاي مارك كتس، استاد دولت و سياست در دانشگاه جرج ميسن واقع در شهر فرفكس ايالت ويرجينيا، اخيرا در مقاله اي به دولت آمريكا توصيه كرد به جاي اشغال نظامي يا شيوه هاي ديگر، بايد مانند و روسيه و چين و ساير قدرتهاي اتمي، براي مقابله با قدرت اتمي احتمال ايران هم از سياستهاي بازدارنده استفاده كند. دكتر كتس در مصاحبه با راديو فردا مي گويد: شكي ندارد كه حكومت ايران تلاش مي كند سلاحهاي اتمي بدست بياورد، اما معتقد است آمريكا كه توانسته با استفاده از سياست بازدارندگي با استالين و مائوي داراي قدرت اتمي زندگي كند، با جمهوري اسلامي هم خواهد توانست كنار آيد، زيرا آيت الله ها هرقدر بد باشند، به اندازه مائو يا استالين بد يا قدرتمند نيستند. وي مي گويد به نظر او آيت الله هاي ايران صرفا ديكتاتورهايي هستند كه نمي خواهند برافتاده شوند و به همين سبب سياستهاي بازدارنده، ميتواند درباره آنها كارساز باشد. آقاي كتس با ذكر نمونه هاي تاريخي مي گويد شايد صدام حسين و كيم جونگ ايل، رئيس حكومت كره شمالي در اين چهارچوب نگنجند، اما آمريكا، دهه ها توانست با تهديد متقابل يا بازدارندگي با قدرتهاي اتمي بزرگي مثل شوروي و چين سرو كار داشته باشد ودليلي وجود ندارد كه اين روند درباره ايران موثر نباشد. آقاي كتس مي گويد همانگونه كه تجربه اتحاد جماهير شوروي نشان داد، داشتن سلاحهاي اتمي، نمي تواند از سقوط يك نظام سياسي جلوگيري كند. از آقاي كتس سئوال ميكنيم درباره مسائل ديگر كه آمريكا ادعا ميكند حكومت ايران به حمايت با تروريسم و مخالفت با روند صلح خاورميانه مشغول است، چه مي گوييد. آقاي كتس مي گويد اتحاد جماهير شوروي هم در طول عمر خود، از گروههاي برانداز ماركسيست در نقاط مختلف جهان حمايت مي كرد، ولي آمريكا با آن وارد جنگ نشد. آقاي كتس در مقاله اي كه در اين باره در نشريه اينترنتي يورژيا نيوز منتشر كرد، استدلال كرد كه از سه راه، يعني بازدارندگي از طريق تهديد متقابل، مداخله نظامي براي سرنگون ساختن رژيم در ايران و همچنين ازبين بردن تاسيسات اتمي ايران از طريق حمله هوايي محدود، راه اول مقرون به صرفه تر است و با پيامدهاي ناگوار كمتري ميتواند روبرو باشد. بااين حال آقاي كتس ميگويد حمايت حكومت ايران از تروريست، ناشي از مشكلاتي است كه آمريكا در جاهاي ديگر با آن روبرو است.وي ميگويد: اگر در جاهاي ديگر مشكلاتي نبود، تروريستي هم وجود نميداشت كه آيت الله ها از آن حمايت كنند، يعني وجود اين مشكلات، به خاطر حمايت آيت الله هاي ايران از تروريستها نيست و ايران بوجود آورنده آن مشكلات نبوده است. از آقاي كتس، استداد دانشگاه جرج ميسن كه از ديد بازدارندگي اتمي در برابر ايران دفاع ميكند، ميپرسيم آمريكا چگونه ميتواند از استفاده بمب اتمي توسط جمهوري اسلامي جلوگيري كند و او مي گويد با دانستن اينكه اگر آنها از بمب اتم استفاده كنند، اتفاق مشابه يا بدتري براي خودشان خواهد افتاد و به آنها هم حمله اتمي مي شود، مي توان آنها را از حمله اتمي بازداشت كه به آن، به اصطلاح، اطمينان مشترك از نابودي خوانده مي شود. آقاي كتس مي گويد حكومت ايران به خوبي ميداند كه غرب از قابليتهاي اتمي بسيار بيشتري برخوردار است براي نابود كردن ايران. از سوي ديگر وي ميگويد منطق ديگر اين است كه داشتن سلاح اتمي توسط ايران، باعث ترس كشورهاي ديگر از آن مي شود و كشورهاي ديگري كه ممكن است الان با آمريكا روابط چندان خوبي هم نداشته باشند، از ترس سلاحهاي اتمي ايران بيشتر به دامان آمريكا، پناه خواهند برد. وي از عربستان سعودي و عراق آينده مثال مي آورد. وي مي گويد در اين صورت ما به مسير سياست خارجي سياست قديم آمريكا مي افتيم كه آمريكا حمايت كننده كشورها بود در برابر تهديدهاي خارجي. آقاي كتس مي گويد: اتفاقات اخير تقريبا ترديدي باقي نگذاشته است كه ايران مي كوشد خود را به سلاح اتمي مجهز كند. وي يك نمونه از اين اتفاقات را امتناع حكومت ايران از پيوستن به پروتكل الحاقي پيمان منع گسترش سلاحهاي اتمي مي داند و ميگويد اگر ايران چيزي براي پنهان كردن نداشت، اين پروتكل را امضا مي كرد. آقاي مارك كتس، استاد دولت و سياست در دانشگاه جرج ميسن واقع در شهر فرفكس ايالت ويرجينيا، اخيرا در مقاله اي به دولت آمريكا توصيه كرد به جاي اشغال نظامي يا شيوه هاي ديگر، بايد مانند و روسيه و چين و ساير قدرتهاي اتمي، براي مقابله با قدرت اتمي احتمالي حکومت ايران هم از سياستهاي بازدارنده استفاده كند. وي در مصاحبه با راديو فردا مي گويد که آمريكا توانست با استفاده از سياست بازدارندگي با استالين و مائوي داراي قدرت اتمي زندگي كند، پس با جمهوري اسلامي هم خواهد توانست كنار آيد، زيرا آيت الله ها هرقدر بد باشند، به اندازه مائو يا استالين بد يا قدرتمند نيستند. وي مي گويد به نظر او آيت الله هاي جمهوري اسلامي صرفا ديكتاتورهايي هستند كه نمي خواهند برافتاده شوند. وي در مورد اتهامات آمريکا به جمهوري اسلامي در حمايت از تروريسم نيز مي گويد که اتحاد جماهير شوروي هم از گروههاي برانداز ماركسيست در نقاط مختلف جهان حمايت مي كرد، ولي آمريكا با آن وارد جنگ نشد.
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