لینک‌های قابلیت دسترسی

جمعه ۱۹ آذر ۱۳۹۵ تهران ۰۹:۴۱ - ۹ دسامبر ۲۰۱۶

رقابت روسيه با اوپك در صدور نفت خام، و چشم انداز تنگناي مالي ايران و ساير اعضاي اوپك


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Summary of Iran Stories in Today&apos;s BroadcastsBehnam NateghiSunday, November 30, 2003 <b>FM Spokesman Praises Europeans&apos; Commitment to Iran&apos;s Nuclear Program</b> • “The Europeans have acted in a committed way” on Iran&apos;s nuclear program, foreign ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi said on Sunday, ruling out speculation that the EU3 may now choose to renege on their promise of nuclear cooperation with Iran. “The way they have been behaving is encouraging us to have a serious and constructive cooperation,” he said. (Leyli Sadr) • Iran plans to build six nuclear power plants, secretary of the supreme national security council Hassan Rowhani said in a press conference in Tehran on Saturday. Iran does not intend to suspend its uranium enrichment program forever, because it will need the fuel for its nuclear power plants. (Bahman Bastani) <b>Human Rights Defenders Attack Majles Speaker for Suppressing MP&apos;s Speech</b> • The group of lawyers, including Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi, who founded the human rights defenders&apos; society, sharply criticized Majles speaker Mehdi Karrubi for hushing Isfahan MP Ahmad Shirzad&apos;s speech, in which he attacked the regime&apos;s nuclear program, the judiciary&apos;s handling of the investigation into murder of Canadian-Iranian photojournalist Zahra Kazemi, and the process of selection and monitoring the conduct of the Supreme Leader, which he said was a “vicious circle.” Before he could finish, Karrubi silenced him and likened his speech to that of the regime&apos;s opposition. The duty of the Majles speaker is to provide the grounds for free expression of viewpoint, not silencing the MPs, wrote the human rights defenders society in its statement. No logic would accept limiting freedom of speech in the name of justice, the statement added. (Amir Armin) <b>Tehran Judiciary Tortures Jailed Student for Meeting UN Envoy</b> • The Tehran judiciary, under direct supervision of Tehran prosecutor Said Mortazavi tortured jailed student Ahmad Batebi in order to coerce him into making false “confessions” against student activists and human rights advocates, a newly formed committee to support Ahmad Batebi said in a statement. Batebi was arrested last month three days, before the end of his furlough, after he took part in a meeting of student activists with UN Human Rights Commission&apos;s special envoy Ambei Ligabo. He was returned to his cellblock a month later. Batebi&apos;s initial arrest was after the July 1999 student demonstrations when his picture holding the bloody tee-shirt of a fellow demonstrator appeared in foreign media. He was sentenced to death, which was later commuted to 15 years in jail. His life is in danger, his support committee warned. (Bahman Bastani) <b>Intelligence and Culture Ministries and Radio-TV Bug Phones, Filter Websites, Says Minister</b> • The intelligence and culture ministries and the state radio-TV monopoly decide on the targets of phone bugging. The communications ministry (Vezarat-e Post va Telephone va Telegraph) conducts the bugging, communications minister Ahmad Motamedi said in a question and answer session at the Majles. New software has been deployed by the ministry that would make the filtering of Internet sites three times faster and more accurate, he added. A committee of representatives from the intelligence and culture ministries, and radio-TV organization decide on the list of website to be filtered. (Masoud Malek) <b>Khatami Calls for Ratification of Political Crimes and Anti Torture Bills</b> • In a meeting with members of the presidential committee to supervise compliance with the constitution, President Khatami called on the Guardians Council to ratify Majles approved bills on political crimes and ending all forms of torture. He praised the judiciary&apos;s plan to replace current solitary jail cells with newer, roomier ones. (Leyli Sadr) <b>Mashhad MP Blasts Economy and the Supreme Leader&apos;s Plan</b> • Mashhad MP Ali Zafarzadeh, member of the Majles industries and mines committee, blasted the country&apos;s dire economic conditions, and blamed the 25 years of post-revolutionary administrations for the spread of poverty, and the rising inflation of 15 percent per year, which has reduced the people&apos;s buying power. Fifty percent of a family&apos;s income goes to pay for food alone, he said. In the past 25 years, more than $500 billion of this country&apos;s oil and gas wealth has been spent away, but most people live below the poverty line. The Supreme Leader&apos;s goal to make Iran the most prosperous country in the region in twenty years is unrealistic and unattainable, he added. He cited the formation of powerful economic colonies, the autonomy of major religious-economic institutions which operate beyond the government and Majles, and general waste of the country&apos;s resources as the main ills of the economy. Lack of independence of the central bank, has resulted in 202,000 billion rials of government debt. (Ali Sajjadi) <b>Government Denies Permission for Students Gatherings</b> • The Tehran provincial government denied the association of Islamic student councils permit for holding a seminar at Tehran&apos;s Hosseinieh Ershad mosque on the occasion of the student day. The seminar was planned to shed light on fifty years of students&apos; struggle for human rights, justice and freedoms. The director of the provincial government&apos;s law enforcement office said no permits will be issued for off-campus student activities. Shahid Rajai University authorities rejected the Islamic student council&apos;s request to hold a seminar titled “in defense of contemporary intellectuals.” Several relatives of the victims of the 1998 serial murders of dissidents, including families of Mohammad Mokhtari and Mohammad-Jafar Pouyandeh, were scheduled to speak at that seminar, secretary of Rajai University&apos;s Islamic student council said. (Ali Sajjadi) <b>Iran and Kuwait Field Candidates for OPEC</b> • Iran threatened that if OPEC does not approve its candidate for the job of secretary-general, it will vote down the candidates forwarded by other member countries. Kuwait has fielded a candidate and OPEC&apos;s Venezuelan secretary-general Alvaro Silva Calderon is also seeking another term. In that last OPEC election, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to vote for Calderon, after rejecting each other&apos;s candidate. (Mahdieh Javid) <b>Pro-Reform Party May Boycott Next Elections</b> • Pro-reform party the Participation Front may decide to boycott the upcoming Majles elections, spokesman of the party&apos;s bloc of Majles MPs Ali Mazroui said, adding that the party&apos;s final decision will be announced next month. The people have concluded that their vote has no bearing on the country, he added. The Participation Front may decide not to field any candidates in the elections, the party&apos;s secretary-general Mohammad-Reza Khatami, President Khatami&apos;s brother, said last month at the end of the party&apos;s national convention that (Ali Sajjadi) <b>Judiciary to Try Nationalist Opposition Leader</b> • The Tehran revolutionary court summoned Dr. Ebrahim Yazdi, secretary-general of the nationalist opposition group the Freedom Movement of Iran (FMI) to stand trial for anti-regime activities. The charges are a part of the past two years&apos; restrictions against the activities of the FMI, which led to the organization being declared illegal and the conviction of several of its high-ranking members, Yazdi&apos;s lawyer <b>Mohammad-Ali Dadkhah</b> tells <b>Radio Farda</b>. (Nima Tamadon) <b>Religious Youth Torch Tabriz Billiard Hall</b> • A gang of hard-liners, motivated by an ideological interpretation about the game of billiard, torched a Tabriz billiard hall, the forth in the city to be destroyed by arsen, Tabriz-based independent journalist <b>Ensafali Hedayat</b> tells <b>Radio Farda</b>. There is no religious decree against billiard, he adds. (Jean Khakzad) <b>Health Ministry Admits a Fraction of AIDS Cases</b> • While the independent AIDS committee puts the number of AIDS and HIV patients at 30,000, the health ministry announced that there are 5,780 patients in Iran, 95 percent of them men, and so far 694 people have died of AIDS. (Jean Khakzad) <b>Expediency Council Sides with Majles on Mother&apos;s Custody of Boys</b> • In arbitration between the Majles and the Guardians Council on a Majles bill that extended divorced mothers&apos; custody of their sons from two years of age to seven, the Expediency Council sided with the Majles. The Guardians Council had rejected the bill, arguing that religious law gives the custody of boys older than two years of age to the father. The Expediency Council also approved that decision on the custody of children seven years of age and older will be made by courts, if divorced parents cannot agree. According to the current law, the father receives the custody of boys older than two and girls older than seven. (Jean Khakzad) <b>Religious Decrees Fail to Curb Drug Use</b> • Religious decrees banning the use of drugs issued by top Shiite leaders, or sources of emulation, such as Yousef Sanei, Ali-Akbar Musavi-Ardabili, Nouri Hamedani and Mazaheri, failed to slow the spread of drug use among the young people. In the span of only 25 years, the Shiite clergy has lost the good will capital that it had accumulated over the centuries, Qum-based pro-reform commentator and activist <b>Dr. Akbar Karami</b> tells <b>Radio Farda</b> . Today, the people, especially the educated people in universities and high schools, pay little attention to religious decrees, he adds. <b>Unused Hotel Capacity</b> • Nearly 70 percent of the capacity of hotels in Iran is not being properly utilized, secretary of the hotel owners society said. He cited lack of education of staff and low quality rating among the problems of the industry, according to domestic news agencies. The problem has to do with supply and demand, Tehran University tourism professor <b>Mohammad-Taqi Rahnamai</b> tells <b>Radio Farda</b>. Hotels dropped their quality rating below two star in order to be able to charge less for their rooms, considering the fact that only a few can afford the rates charged by four-star and five-star hotels, he adds. Of 630 hotels, more than 500 have ratings of one or two star, he adds. Most hotel managers and their staff lack training. The hotel school has been closed since the 1979 revolution, when the Bonyad-e Mostazefan (Foundation of the Dispossessed) took over all top hotels, and installed managers who had little or no experience in running a hotel, he adds. (Jamshid Zand) <b>Judiciary Chief Nominates Another Judge to the Guardians Council</b> • After the Majles rejected both his nominees for membership in the Guardians Council, judiciary chief Ayatollah Mahmoud Shahroudi re-nominated Fazollah Mousavi and instead of judiciary spokesman Elham, named Shiraz judiciary&apos;s Mohammad-Hadi Sadeqi. Citing a ruling by the Expediency Council, judiciary chief insisted, in a letter to the Majles speaker, that the nominee who receives relative majority, meaning more votes than the other, be confirmed, but the reformist Majles MPs, including head of the Majles legal committee Naser Qavami, maintained that only confirmation of the nominees require an absolute majority of the Majles votes. A nominee might receive two votes and the other may get three. To confirm someone with only three votes is just irrational, he said. The Guardians Council has 6 clerical and 6 legal members. The clerics are appointed by the Supreme Leader, but the judiciary chief names the legal members, and their appointment requires Majles confirmation. (Leyli Sadr, Amir Armin) . ليلي آرمان (راديوفردا): عربستان سعودي از روسيه عقب افتاد. روس ها با روانه کردن نفت بيشتر به بازارهاي جهاني، در صدر صادر کنندگان نفت در جهان جاي گرفتند. به گفته ناظران بين المللي، با اين پيشتازي مسکو، جنگي هر چند اعلام نشده، بين اوپک و روسيه در گرفته است. بر پايه گزارش عليرضا طاهري از راديوفردا، پيشي گرفتن روسيه از همه کشورهاي صادر کننده نفت، اعضاي اوپک، از جمله ايران را با تنگناهاي مالي مي تواند روبرو کند. عليرضا طاهري (راديوفردا): روس ها تا همين چندي پيش همواره خود را با اوپک هماهنگ مي کردند و به خواسته هاي اين کارتل بين المللي صدور نفت، تن در مي دادند. اما اکنون اين دوران به نظر مي رسد که به سر آمده است. شرکت هاي غول پيکر نفتي روسيه به اين نتيجه رسيده اند که استبداد اوپک درباره تعيين سطح مشخص توليد، براي نگاهداري بهاي هر بشکه نفت بين 18 تا 26 دلار، پذيرفتني نيست. اوپک معتقد است که اگر اين سقف توليد برداشته شود، بهاي نفت به شدت پايين خواهد آمد. اما روس ها که از قدرت توليد و صدور هر چه بيشتر نفت برخوردار هستند، مي گويند: پايين آمدن بهاي نفت را با صدور بيشتر طلاي سياه يا نفت، نه تنها جبران مي کنيم، بلکه در آمد بيشتري نيز به کيسه خودمان خواهيم ريخت. سران اوپک تا کنون بارها به مسکو سفر کرده اند تا رهبران کرملين را به هماهنگي با سازمان خود جلب کنند، اما به گفته ليو دورالاس، از مرکز مطالعات جهاني نيرو، مستقر در لندن، روس ها در سال جاري باز هم مقدار بيشتري نفت روانه بازار خواهند کرد. و در نتيجه اين پرسش در ميان است که آيا طومار سرنوشت اوپک در هم پيچيده خواهد شد يا نه؟ روسيه روزانه هشت ميليون و 600 هزار بشکه و عربستان سعودي روزانه نزديک به هشت ميليون بشکه نفت توليد مي کنند. همزمان، عربستان سعودي تنها کشور عضو اوپک است که به آساني مي تواند ميزان توليد نفت خود را بالا ببرد و به مسابقه با روسيه در اين ميدان ادامه دهد. اما ورود عربستان سعودي به چنين مسابقه اي، به معناي پايان عمر اوپک خواهد بود. از سوي ديگر، پيش بيني مي شود که عراق نيز به زودي سه ميليون و 500 هزار بشکه نفت در روز روانه بازار کند. ورود اين ميزان نفت به بازارهاي جهاني، با توجه به مسابقه عربستان سعودي و روسيه، ميخ ديگري بر تابوت اوپک خواهد بود. در اين ميان، زيانکاران اصلي ديگر کشورهاي اوپک، از جمله ايران خواهند بود. ايران به خصوص، بيش از همه اوپکي ها زيان خواهد ديد. چون به هيچ روي توانايي بالا بردن ميزان توليد نفت اش را ندارد. تهران براي بالا بردن قدرت توليد نفت خود، به سرمايه و فن آوري هاي پيشرفته خارجي، به خصوص آمريکايي نياز دارد که از آنها بر پايه سياست خارجي خود، محروم است. از سوي ديگر، ميزان تقاضاي مواد سوختي در درون خود ايران، به گونه اي نجومي رو به افزايش مي رود، و ناظران مي گويند که جمهوري اسلامي در شرايط کنوني، چند سالي بيشتر نمي تواند در صف صادر کنندگان جهاني نفت بماند. تنها بخت ايران در اين ميان، منابع غني گاز طبيعي در آن کشور است که بهره برداري از آنها نيز هم سرمايه خارجي مي خواهد، و هم فن آوري پيشرفته خارجي. ايران باز نه از آن برخوردار است و نه از اين. در حال حاضر، شاخص بهاي نفت خام درياي برنت، براي تحويل 15 روزه، بشکه اي 29 دلار است، يعني رقمي بالاتر از حد انتظار اوپک. در ايران، دولت محمد خاتمي، اين ما به التفاوت بها را براي روز مبادا که بهاي نفت در حدي دور از انتظار پايين بيايد، به صندوقي ويژه مي ريزد. اما گروهي از کارشناسان مي گويند که اين صندوق عملا تو خالي است، چون هر چه در آن اندوخته مي شود، به حساب هاي نهادهاي رسمي دولتي ريخته مي شود تا همچنان در پوشش وجود نرخي ثابت براي دلار در ايران، با دلاري ارزان تر از دلار عرضه شده در بازار، داد و ستد کنند. روسيه با روانه کردن نفت بيشتر به بازارهاي جهاني، جاي عربستان سعودي را در صدر صادر کنندگان نفت جهان نصيب خود ساخت. به گفته ناظران بين المللي، با اين پيشتازي مسکو، جنگي هر چند اعلام نشده، بين اوپک و روسيه در گرفته است. روسيه مي كوشد از طريق وارد كردن نفت بيشتر به بازارها، قيمت اوپك را در هم بشكند و با افزايش نفت به بهاي ارزانتر بر درآمد نفتي خود بيافزايد. پيشي گرفتن روسيه از همه کشورهاي صادر کننده نفت، براي اعضاي اوپك مشكل آفرين خواهد. از جمله ايران، كه ظرفيت توليد محدودي دارد، در اثر پائين افتادن قيمت، با كاهش درآمد ارزي روبرو خواهد شد.
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