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پنجشنبه ۳ خرداد ۱۳۹۷ تهران ۰۵:۲۴

پيش بيني كارشناسان: چشم انداز اقتصاد ايران در سال 1381

فريدون زرنگار -- علي رشيدي، موسي غني نژاد، فريبرز رئيس دانا و حبيب چيني

Summary of Today's BroadcastRFE/RL Persian ServiceWednesday, March 27, 2002 - Iran's Economic Prospects - Conservative domination of judiciary, expediency council increases - Iran-China economic ties New Year Economic Forecast RFE/RL interviews four Tehran-based economists who predict economic trends for the Iranian year ahead: * Ali Rashidi: Iran's projected foreign exchange income from oil exports is at half of the achieved level of two years ago. The government's inflationary budget and likely failure to realize its projected tax income will force it to borrow more from the banking system. * Musa Ghaninezhad: Inflation rate is likely to jump during the next 12 months. Privatization will continue to face problems and delays. * Fariburz Raisdana: 3.5 million jobless have no prospects, and the privatization plans were drawn without paying attention to the country's economic conditions. Llittle foreign investment may be attracted during the year, but not in technology transfer, consumer goods or job producing industries. * Habib Chini: The year will likely be a "good" one economically as a result of the unification of the foreign exchange rate, which will eliminate the existing difference of rates for the public and private sectors. It will take some time for the effects of the unified exchange rate to be felt, however. (Fereydoun Zarnegar) Judiciary to Try Oil Minister and Central Bank General Governor * The trials of the Islamic Republic's minister of petroleum and central bank governor will begin after the New Year holidays in Iran, according to Guy Dinmore, the Financial Times reporter in Iran. A judiciary spokesman told Dinmore that charges would range from mismanagement to corruption. (Alireza Taheri) French Foreign Minister Asks Iran to Allow UN Human Rights Inspections * Speaking to the UN Human Rights Commission in Geneva, the French Foreign Minister asked the Islamic Republic to allow the UN Human Rights Commission's special reporter back in Iran. He praised Iraq for having allowed the resumption of such visits. (Jean Khakzad, Paris) 1380, The Year in Review: Judiciary RFE/RL interviews two lawyers and human rights activists in Tehran about the judiciary and issues of law during the past year. * Nemat Ahmadi: the reformists were dealt a heavy blow last year when the judiciary closed newspapers and put journalists, political activists and MP's on trial. The threat of resignation by Speaker Karubi was too heavy a price to pay for obtaining the release of Hamedan MP Loqmanian. Ahmadi sees potential importance in the shake-up of the Expediency Council which will likely take on a a more conservative inclination. The body is playing an increasingly important role in legislation, as the conservative Guardians Council continues to block Majles bills. Citing official figures, Ahmadi says the average space for one prisoner in Iran is smaller than a tomb. * Nasser Zarafshan, who last week received a 5-year prison term on charges of "revealing government secrets" when he represented some of the families of the 1998 serial murders, tells RFE/RL that any remaining political freedoms gained after Khatami's election disappeared last year. (Mina Baharmast) UK Journalist Union and Bar Association Protest Zarafshan's Jail Term * The National Union of Journalists of England and Ireland and the British bar association protested the military court sentencing of lawyer Nasser Zarafshan, who represented families of the serial murder victims. The Tehran bar association and Majles law commission also reacted to Zarafshan's sentence. (Mahmonir Rahimi) Mehrangiz Kar Reviews Pressures on Press * Mehrangiz Kar, Tehran-based lawyer and human rights activist who is visiting the US, describes the suppression of the press that followed the April 2000 Berlin conference on reforms in Iran. The Leader accused reformist publications of links with foreign "enemies" and prevented the Majles from overturning a law, passed by the previous Majles, that makes activities by critical newspapers nearly impossible in Iran. (Homayoun Majd, Washington) Chinese President To Go to Iran amid Rift with US over Arms Sales to Iran * As Iran prepares to receive the Chinese President in a few weeks, concern over weapons and technology sales to Iran strains US relations with China. (Shahram Tehrani, Beijing) Review of China-Iran Economic Relations * Trade between China and Iran reached $3 billion during 2001, making China one of Iran's top three trading partners - along with South Korea and Japan. The Chinese delegation to the Iran-China economic conference in Tehran last week discussed involvement in major projects, such as atomic power plants and roads, but the Iranians have expressed dissatisfaction with the quality and workmanship of some of the projects finished by the Chinese in Iran, including a power plant in Irak. (Fereydoun Khavand) Iranian Theatrical Troup to Visit Germany * A Tehran theatrical company of mostly women will perform a play by Spanish poet Lorca at the Berliner Ensemble. Nasser Hosseini, a Cologne-based theater scholar tells RFE/RL that instead of this play, he wished a new Iranian play could be sent to Germany from Iran to show the true state of Iranian theater. (Shahram Mirian, Cologne) WORLD * Half of the 22 members of the Arab League are not represented by a head of state at the Arab summit in Beirut. (Jamshid Chalangi, Beirut) * Arab League will increase its financial support to the Palestinian Authority from current $60 million to $120 million, the League's Secretary Amr Musa tells RFE/RL. (Jamshid Chalangi) * US President and the UNSG urge Arab leaders to accept Saudi Arabia's plan for peace in the Middle East. (Mina Baharmast) * Earthquake wipes out the city of Nahrain in northern Afghanistan. (Shireen Famili) * The Afghan interim government seeks an expansion of the role of the UN peacekeeping force beyond the Kabul area. (Siavash Ardalan) * The return of Afghanistan's exiled king Mohammad Zaher was delayed after a phone call from President Bush to Italy's prime minister, according to Italy's Deputy Minister of Foreign Relations Bonivar. (Ahmad Ra'fat, Rome) * Lebanese President blocks Arafat from addressing the Arab summit in Beirut via satellite. (Jamshid Chalangi, Beirut) * Gunman kills eight, injures twenty at Paris local council meeting (Jean Khakzad, Paris) * EU to compete with US with its own GPS system. (Jamshid Zand) ARTS AND IDEAS Weekly Science Magazine * Dr. Sina Bavari and Dr. Javad Aman, two Iranian scientists from the Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, tell RFE/RL about their ground-breaking discovery about the means by which the Ebola virus attacks human cells. They say a pseudo virus they have created can be used as a vaccine to prevent the spread of the deadly Ebola infection. (Fatemeh Aman, Washington) * Dr. Flora Peyvandi of the A. Bianchi Bonomi Hemophilia and Thrombosis Centre, Milan, Italy, tells RFE/RL about the international conference of Hemophilia due to be held in Tehran on April 17th. (Fatemeh Aman) Youth, Society and Education * In his weekly show, Said Peyvandi discusses the need for textbook reforms, and talks about the job crisis in Iran.

دكتر علي رشيدي، كارشناس اقتصاد در تهران، كاهش درآمدهاي نفتي و آهسته تر شدن آهنگ رشد اقتصادي در سال 1381 را پيش بيني مي كند. بودجه را تورم زا مي داند و احتمال مي دهد عدم تحقق پيش بيني درآمد مالياتي به قرض بيشتر از سيستم بانكي منجر شود. دكتر موسي غني نژاد نيز افزايش نرخ تورم در سال 1381 را ناشي از بودجه "تورم زا" مي داند و مي گويد سياست هاي كلي اقتصادي، يعني تقويت بخش خصوصي و كوچكتر كردن دولت با مشكل مواجه است. با اين حال مي افزايد اصلاح نظام مالياتي سرمايه گذاري را افرايش خواهد داد. دكتر فريبرز رئيس دانا، كارشناس اقتصاد در تهران، چشم انداز اقتصاد ايران در سال 1381 را روشن نمي داند و مي گويد با توجه به بودجه امكان مهار تورم را جدي نمي بينم. وي مشكل اصلي را وجود 3 ميليون و 500 هزار بيكار در ايران مي داند و مي گويد امكان ايجاد اشتغال جدي براي آنها وجود ندارد. وي مي افزايد برنامه خصوصي سازي استراتژي ندارد و با توانايي هاي اقتصاد سازگار نيست. وي موفقيت ايران براي جلب سرمايه هاي خارجي را نيز در سال جاري ناچيز مي داند به خصوص در مورد سرمايه هايي كه اشتغال زا باشند و كالاي مصرفي توليد كنندو به انتقال تكنولوژي به ايران كمك كنند. دكتر حبيب چيني تغيير موقعيت اقتصادي ايران در سال 1381 را در ارتباط با چگونگي پياده شدن سياست تك نرخي شدن ارز مي داند. دكتر حبيب چيني مي گويد اميدهاي زيادي هست كه با تك نرخي شدن ارز اختلاف بين بخش دولتي و بخش خصوصي از بين برود و بنابراين به نظر مي رسد كه سال آينده سال خوبي باشد ولي بايد مدتي بگذرد تا معلوم شود تاثير تك نرخي شدن ارز در نظامي كه اكنون دو نرخي هست چگونه خواهد بود.

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