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شنبه ۲۹ مهر ۱۳۹۶ تهران ۰۰:۲۰

پيامد انتخابات مجلس از ديد رئيس سازمان «سيا»: ضربه جدي به اصلاحات و چشم انداز ثبات بيشتر حكومت ايران

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Summary of Iran Stories in Today&apos;s BroadcastsBehnam NateghiWednesday, February 25, 2004 <b>CIA Chief Declares the Islamic Regime Secure, for Now</b> • The mix of greater repression, as the most immediate consequence of the rigged elections, and public apathy would keep the Islamic regime “secure for now,” CIA chief George Tenet said testifying to the US Senate Intelligence Committee about threats US security. Despite the elections, “the Iranian public does not appear eager to take a challenge to the streets,” he said. “In Tehran, apathy is the prevailing mood and regime intimidation has cowed the populace,” he added. (Amir-Mosaddegh Katouzian) • “His remarks may alarm some hardliners in the Bush Administration who are concerned that the White House intends to shift policy and to follow the European strategy of engaging the Iranian regime - effectively abandoning its support for the reform movement,” London daily the <i>Financial Times</i> writes. (Bahman Bastani) <b>Final Count: Conservatives Win the Majles Majority </b> • The final vote count announced today by the interior ministry showed that conservatives won a clear Majles majority, or 159 of 290 Majles seats. A total 1.96 million voted in Tehran, giving straight victories in 27 of the 30 Tehran seats to members of a newly formed conservative coalition headed by Gholamali Haddad-Adel, the Supreme Leader&apos;s in-law. Three remaining Tehran seats will be decided in run-off elections. (Mehdi Khalaji) • Majles speaker Mehdi Karrubi pulled out of the run-off elections, after failing to receive the minimum 25 percent of the vote. • Head of the reformists&apos; election headquarters Ali-Akbar Mohtashaminia asked for a recount of the votes in 56 electoral districts, and complained to the Guardians Council against the winning conservative coalition&apos;s use of government funds and facilities to promote its candidates. (Maryam Ahmadi) • We shall act as a lawful opposition, secretary-general of the pro-reform party the Participation Front Mohammad-Reza Khatami, who resigned from his position as deputy Majles speaker, said in an interview with <i>Newsweek</i>. The Participation Front, which controls the largest bloc of MPs in the Majles, boycotted the elections after the Guardians Council rejected 2,400 pro-reform candidates. We shall support the pro-reform minority in the next Majles, the party&apos;s central committee secretary Hadi Heydari said after a meeting of the committee to chart the future. (Bahman Bastani) • In a special report, <b>Radio Farda</b> reviews the biographies of top conservative vote getters. (Nima Tamadon) • The reformists&apos; loss was due to their lack of determination, German daily <i>Frankfurter Allgemeine</i> writes. In the early years of their coming to power, it was easier for them to call people to the streets and resist the conservatives, but the reformists, and especially President Khatami, were worried about the unwanted consequences of such a move, the daily adds. (Parviz Farhang, Cologne) • Officials of the pro-reform interior ministry refused to give interviews to the conservative state-run radio-TV monopoly, complained an IRIB PR official. (Nazi Azeima) • Khatami is politically dead, Italian newspaper <i>Gazzetta del Sud</i> writes, adding that Iran was moving towards a dark future. The Islamic Republic is on one side giving ultimatums to the west and on the other side is negotiating with the US and EU, Italian daily <i>Il Foglio</i> writes, rejecting the rumor that Khatami&apos;s resignation was imminent. (Ahmad Ra&apos;fat, Rome) <b>US President Denounces Majles Elections</b> • “I am very disappointed in the recently disputed parliamentary elections in Iran,” US President George Bush said on Tuesday in a statement read by his spokesman Scott McClellan. The disqualification of the candidates “deprived many Iranians of the opportunity to freely choose their representatives,” he said. “I join many in Iran and around the world in condemning the Iranian regime&apos;s efforts to stifle freedom of expression, including the closing of two leading reformist newspapers in the run-up to the elections. Such measures undermine the rule of law and are clear attempts to deny the Iranian people&apos;s desire to freely choose their leaders,” Bush said. (Amir Armin) <b>Majles Approves 15 Percent Hike in Gasoline Price</b> • As a part of the government&apos;s budget bill for the fiscal year starting on March 22, 2003, the Majles approved to hike gasoline prices by 15 percent to 800 rials per liter, or nearly 10 cents, at the official rate of exchange. However, it rejected the government&apos;s plan to shield the poor and public transportation against the price hike by issuing discount coupons. (Arash Qavidel, Tehran) <b>IAEA Chief Accuses Iran of Hiding Info on Nuclear Program</b> • In a report demanding more prompt answers to the remaining questions about Iran&apos;s nuclear program, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohamed ElBaradei accused Iran of continuing to hide information, despite its commitment to full disclosure. These questions included why Iran did not declare designs for advanced “P2” enrichment centrifuges, parts of which it made, and why traces of both highly enriched and low-enriched uranium (HEU and LEU) had been found at two sites in Iran, the Reuters reports. “There is some classified stuff the United States knows that we think the IAEA will discover...by investigating and pursuing leads,” a US official said to the Reuters news agency. The report suggests for the first time in any IAEA report that Iran was working on nuclear weapons,” David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector, said. (Maryam Ahmadi) • It is becoming clear that Iran&apos;s earlier reports to the IAEA were not complete, Carnegie Endowment for Peace&apos;s non-proliferation expert <b>Rose Gottemoeller</b> tells <b>Radio Farda</b>. The discovery of plutonium is important because it had not been announced previously by Iran, she adds. The new Majles, which is more in line with the conservative rulers, is expected to have no problem ratifying the additional protocol to the UN nuclear non-proliferation treaty, she says. (Ali Sajjadi) <b>Guardians Council Rejects Majles Bill to Privatize Four State Banks</b> • The hopes of economists within and outside the Islamic government for banking reform were dashed by the Guardians Council&apos;s rejection of a Majles-approved government bill to privatize four major banks. Minister of economy and finance Tahmasb Mazaheri said if the Guardians Council rejects a Majles revision, the bill will go to the Expediency Council for final arbitration. The Islamic Republic constitution nationalized banking in Iran in 1979, providing one of the biggest obstacles to economic growth. Citing the constitution, the Guardians Council has so far blocked privatization attempts. (Fereydoun Khavand) <b>Banned Daily To Re-Publish Under New Editor</b> • * The banned pro-reform daily <i>Shargh</i> will soon reappear on the stands, after a deal made by its managing director with the Tehran prosecutor involving admission of guilt and agreeing to fire editor Mohammad Qouchani, who has played a key role in turning the new comer into the country&apos;s largest paper. Responding to the culture minister&apos;s appeal, President Khatami said the supreme national security council (SNCS), which he heads, had not issued any order against the publication of the MPs&apos; letter to the Supreme Leader. The judiciary closed <i>Shargh</i> and <i>Yaas-e Now</i>, since they were the only two newspapers it found in violation of the SNCS&apos;s ban on the letter, in which 130 MPs blamed the Supreme Leader for the mass disqualification of reformist Majles candidacy applicants from standing in the Majles elections. Even though a directive may not have existed, the definite knowledge of such an order was enough for the prosecutor to act, judiciary spokesman Gholamhossein Elham said. (Keyvan Hosseini) <b>Royal Dutch Shell Bows Out of Azadegan Oil Deal</b> • The Royal Dutch Shell Group of companies said on Tuesday that it will not participate alongside a consortium led by the Japanese government in developing the Azadegan oil field, one of the world&apos;s biggest. Shell acted for several years as a technical adviser to the Japanese consortium, which signed a $2 billion deal with Iran last week. (Alireza Taheri) <b>Judiciary Chief Urges the Majles to Form New Ministry for Enforcing Islamic Codes</b> • Judiciary chief Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi-Shahroudi asked the Majles to expand the current organization for enforcement of Islamic codes (amr beh ma&apos;roof va nahi az monkar) into a full blown government department. Tehran-based lawyer <b>Ahmad Bashiri</b> tells <b>Radio Farda</b> that there are already sufficient laws for punishment of violation of the Islamic codes of behavior and dress. Qum-based reformist commentator <b>Dr. Akbar Karami</b> says the government&apos;s efforts in the field have so far produced the opposite of the intended result, by the government&apos;s own definition. The moral foundations of the society have been disrupted, threatening the society with serious crises, he adds. It is surprising that after the experience of the Taleban in Afghanistan, they (the judicial authorities) have permitted such concepts to be repeated in Iran, he says. (Shireen Famili) . جرج تنت، رئيس سازمان اطلاعات مرکزي آمريکا CIA، روز سه شنبه گزارش مفصل خود را درباره وضعيت امنيتي جهان و آمريکا، به هيات ويژه اطلاعات سناي آمريکا ارائه داد. بخشي از اين گزارش که به وضعيت افغانستان، عراق، روند صلح خاورميانه، مساله گسترش سلاح هاي کشتار جمعي و نقش پاره اي از کشورها و تشکل ها در بي ثبات کردم امنيت جهان و خاورميانه پرداخت شده بود، ويژه گزارش ايران بعد از انتخابات مجلس هفتم و چشم انداز مناسبات آينده ايران و آمريکا بود. رئيس سيا ايران بعد از انتخابات اخير را ايراني با ثبات قلمداد کرد و گفت که نتايج انتخابات، بيانگر شکست اصلاحات حکومتي است. او افزود: اما روبرو بودن جمهوري اسلامي با چالش هاي جهاني در زمينه برنامه هسته اي اين کشور و همچنين روبرو بودن آن با آرايش جديد منطقه اي، اين امکان را به وجود نياورده است که رهبر جمهوري اسلامي به ناگهان سياست خارجي ايران را تغيير دهد. امير مصدق کاتوزيان (راديوفردا): جرج تنت، رئيس سازمان اطلاعات مرکزي آمريکا CIA، در بخشي از گزارش خود به هيات ويژه اطلاعات سناي آمريکا درباره پيامدهاي انتخابات مجلس هفتم ايران در هفته گذشته، پيروزي جناح منتقد دولت محمد خاتمي را در اين انتخابات، ضربه اي جدي به اصلاحات حکومتي در ايران قلمداد کرد. آقاي تنت گفت: پيشي بيني نتيجه احتمالي چنين روندي، افزايش سرکوب در ايران خواهد بود. رئيس سيا آنگاه در جاي ديگري از گفته هاي خود افزود: با پشتيباني مجلس هفتم از افراطي ها، انتظار مي رود که حکومت روحانيان، به بستن شماري از مفرهاي ابراز نارضايتي سياسي بپردازد، و اضافه کرد: چشم انداز بروز خشونت هاي داخلي در ايران اکنون پديدار شده است و اقتدارگرايان ممکن است در واکنش به اعمال سختگيري هاي بيشتر روي آورند که خود باعث برانگيخته شدن خشم و اعتراض مردم خواهد شد. او در اين زمينه به گزارش ها درباره کشته شدن هشت نفر در ايذه و فيروزآباد و مجروح شدن 30 نفر ديگر در جريان اعتراض ها به نتايج شمارش آراء اشاره کرد. آقاي تن گفت: با گشايش مجلس هفتم در تابستان آينده، حکومت ايران بيش از از پيش زير نفوذ اقتدار گرايان قرار خواهد گرفت، و مجلس هفتم اصلاحات اقتصادي را در کانون توجه خود قرار خواهد داد، و يا به گسترش آزادي هاي سياسي کم توجه خواهد بود، و يا با آن اصلا به آن توجهي نخواهد کرد. جرج تنت، رئيس سيا، پيش بني کرد با رو به افول گذاشتن برنامه اصلاحات از بالا، اصلاحگرايان در ايران احتمالا به نهادسازي در جامعه روي مي آورند و براي بازيابي حمايت مردم و روشن نگاه داشتن شعله اصلاحات، به تقويت نهادهاي غير دولتي و تشکل هاي کارگري خواهند پرداخت. رئيس سيا آنگاه اضافه کرد که چيزي از نگراني هايي که او در سال گذشته درباره ايران ابراز کرده بود، کاسته نشده است و پيش بيني کرد که نتايج انتخابات مجلس هفتم، به منزوي شدن بيشتر از پيش جمعيت جوان و تحول طلب ايران منجر خواهد شد. آقاي تنت در گزارش خود افزود: چنانکه در گذشته، به گفته وي، اغلب بارها در تاريخ ايران اتفاق افتاده است، به نظر مي رسد که احتمالا رهبران ايران، واکنش هاي جزمي و عاري از ابتکاري به اين چالش ها نشان دهند. رئيس سيا نتايج انتخابات اخير را آخرين عقب نشيني از رشته عقب نشيني هايي قلمداد کرد که در آن حکومت اقتدار گرايان ايران، بر چالشگران اصلاحگرا فائق آمده است و آقاي تنت، سهم اصلاحگرايان و محمد خاتمي، رئيس جمهوري اسلامي ايران، در فراهم آوردن زمينه چنين عقب نشيني هايي را قابل توجه دانست. آقاي تنت آنگاه با اشاره به نتايج نا آرامي هاي خياباني تيرماه 1378، در پي اعتراض هاي داشجويان به سرکوبي کوي دانشگاه توسط گروهي هاي فشار حکومتي و نيروي انتظامي، گفت: به نظر نمي رسد که مردم ايران اشتياقي به کشاندن چالش هاي خود با حکومت، به خيابان داشته باشند. رئيس سازمان اطلاعات مرکزي آمريکا، سپس افزود: در تهران جو غالب، جو بي تفاوتي سياسي است، و سياست ارعاب حکومتي، مردم را سخت ترسانده است. وي افزود: حاصل جمع اين واقعيات، به معني ثبات بيشتر حکومت ايران در شرايط کنوني است. رئيس سيا در جاي ديگري از گزارش مفصل خود به هيات ويژه اطلاعاتي سناي آمريکا، به بررسي مسير تحولات در سياستگذاري خارجي ايران پرداخت و گفت: عدم اطمينان به رويدادهاي سياسي داخلي ايران، با تلاش تهران براي وفق دادن خود با تحولات منطقه اي و عراق بعد از حکومت صدام حسين همزمان شده است. رئيس سيا آنگاه پيش بيني کرد: به اين دليلي که به گفته او اين رهبر جمهوري اسلامي و حاميان وي هستند که سياست خارجي ايران را تعيين مي کنند، انتظار نمي رود که شکست اصلاح طلبان، به يک تغيير ناگهاني در سياست خارجي اين کشور بيانجامد. آقاي تنت پيش بيني کرد که تهران از طرق مختلف از جمله فعاليت هاي رسانه اي، رساندن کمک هاي انساني و شرکت در بازسازي، مانورهاي ديپلماتيک و عمليات زير زميني، کوشش خواهد کرد تا منافع خود را در عراق به پيش برد، و بر تلاش هاي خود براي مقابله با آمريکا در اين کشور بيافزايد. جرج تنت، رئيس سازمان مرکزي اطلاعات آمريکا، CIA، در بخشي از گزارش خود به كميسيون اطلاعات سناي آمريکا پيروزي جناح منتقد دولت خاتمي در انتخابات مجلس شوراي اسلامي را ضربه اي جدي به اصلاحات حکومتي در ايران دانست. آقاي تنت گفت که پيشي بيني نتيجه احتمالي چنين روندي، افزايش سرکوب در ايران خواهد بود. وي افزود: در تهران جو غالب، جو بي تفاوتي سياسي است، و سياست ارعاب حکومتي، مردم را سخت ترسانده است. به گفته آقاي تنت، حاصل جمع اين واقعيات، به معني ثبات بيشتر حکومت ايران در شرايط کنوني است.