تاثير منفي افزايش سهميه توليد اوپك بر درآمد ارزي ايران

Summary of Iran Stories of Today's BroadcastsBehnam NateghiTuesday, January 14, 2003 <b>Joblessness in Iran</b> * Vice president Mohammad-Reza Aref asked local officials to help the government with job creating ideas. In a gathering yesterday of the Isfahan province administrative council Aref said that finding a solution for the widespread unemployment problem is a priority for the Khatami administration. The unemployment rate is officially at 14 percent, according to deputy director of the management and planning organization Javad Farshbaf. Of a labor force of 19 million, 3.5 million are jobless, 10 percent of whom with college degrees. Sevent-six percent of the unemployed have no skills. (Ali Sajjadi) <b>Majles Increases Defense Budget at the Expense of Development</b> * The Majles raised the defense budget by 4,000 billion rials ($500 million) in the budget bill for the upcoming fiscal year, but decreased the development budget for state enterprises. (Ali Sajjadi) <b> Revenue Shortfalls May Follow the OPEC Production Increase</b> * Tehran-based oil economist Ebrahim Yavari tells <b>Radio Farda</b> that the OPEC's decision last Sunday to increase the cartel's production ceiling by 1.5 million barrels per day would have a negative impact on oil prices, as soon as Iraq and Venezuela resume their exports. He adds that the projected drop in the price of crude oil will create a shortfall in Iran's foreign currency revenues in the upcoming fiscal year. * MP Mohammad-Reza Khabbaz, deputy of the Majles budget commission said the government would face a deficit of $4 billion during the next fiscal year, since the revenues projected in the budget bill are not realistic. (Homayoun Majd) <b> Reporters Sans Frontiers Condemns Judiciary's Ban on Two Newspapers</b> * Paris-based freedom of press advocate Reporters sans Frontiers condemned the banning of two reformist newspapers, <i>Bahar</i> and <i>Hayat-e Now</i>, and called Iran the largest jail for journalists in the Middle East. (Shahran Tabari) <b>Conservatives Call for an End to Protests against Banned Newspaper</b> * The Islamic propaganda organization, the body in charge of organizing pro-conservative demonstrations in Tehran and provinces, thanked the participants of recent demonstrations against the reformist newspaper <i>Hayat-e Now</i>, but asked demonstrators to stop and let the officials punish those responsible for printing the 1937 American cartoon that shows President Franklin Roosevelt crushing Chief Justice Charles Evans Hughes. Despite heavy propaganda, the conservatives could not close down the Tehran bazaar in protest against the cartoon. <i>Hayat-e Now</i> was closed on Saturday by an order of the special court for the clergy after the conservatives charged that the resemblance of Judge Hughes to founder of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Khomeini was an intended insult. (Alireza Taheri) <b>Pollster May be Released on Bail</b> * A lawyer for jailed pollster Behruz Geranpayeh said he can be released on a 2 billion rials bail, but the bail is set beyond what his family can afford. Ramezan Hajji-Mashhadi tells <b>Radio Farda</b> that the judge told him his other client, pollster Hossein Ghazian, will be released on bail along with his co-defendant Abbas Abdi, after their trial ends. The three pollsters, along with three other government officials and an MP were charged with spying for foreign powers and selling Iran's top secret documents after the publication of a poll that showed 74 percent of the respondents favor US-Iran relations. (Amir-Mosaddegh Katouzian) * Tehran judiciary deputy Ali-Asghar Tashakori, who acts as the public prosecutor in the pollsters' case, asked the intelligence ministry to publish the documents that the pollsters have been accused of selling to the US, if it does not consider those documents state secrets. MP Valiollah Tavakoli, a board member of the pro-reform Mosharekat party, asked the judiciary to drop the charges of selling secret documents against the jailed pollsters, because, he said, the classification of documents is the job of the intelligence ministry. Last week intelligence minister Ali Yunesi said the documents judiciary found with the pollsters were not secret, even though they had been stamped "Top Secret" by the ministry. (Mahmonir Rahimi) <b>Jailed Writer and Tolstoy Translator Vanishes</b> * Parvaneh Shemirani, wife of jailed writer and Tolstoy translator Alireza Jabbari tells <b>Radio Farda</b> that in the 18 days since her husband has been taken away by three plainclothes agents; she has not been able to locate him. She says the only time that her husband called, he sounded different and it was obvious that others were listening to the conversation on a speaker phone. (Mahmonir Rahimi) . دكتر ابراهيم ياوري، كارشناس نفت در تهران، در مصاحبه با راديوفردا، تصميم اجلاس اضطراري روز يكشنبه سازمان كشورهاي صادركننده نفت، اوپك، براي افزايش روزانه يك ميليون و 500 هزار بشكه به سقف توليد اين سازمان را در دراز مدت زيان بار توصيف مي كند. دكتر ياوري مي گويد: اگر توليد عراق و ونزوئلا بعد از اتمام بحران را به توليد مصوب اوپك اضافه كنيم، تصميم اوپك تاثير منفي بر قيمت نفت خواهد گذاشت و باعث كاهش درآمدهاي نفتي ايران به ميزان كمتر از آنچه در بودجه سال 1382 تعريف شده است، خواهد شد. وي مي افزايد: تنها بحران سياسي يا نظامي جديدي در منطقه يا جهان مي تواند از اثرات منفي اين تصميم بر قيمت نفت در بازارهاي جهاني جلوگيري كند. وي مي گويد وزارت نفت ايران در تصميمات اوپك بحث كارشناسي فعالي نداشته و تصميمات اوپك مغاير منافع ملي ايران هم بوده است. وي مي گويد احتمالا وزير نفت ايران به علت مخالفت با تصميم اوپك از حضور در كنفرانس روز يكشنبه در وين امتناع كرد.