لینک‌های قابلیت دسترسی

خبر فوری
سه شنبه ۲۶ تیر ۱۳۹۷ تهران ۱۸:۲۴

تسهيل حمله نظامي آمريكا به عراق توسط جمهوري اسلامي، از ديد يك كارشناس روابط بين الملل

شهران طبري مصاحبه با داود هرميداس باوند (تهران)

Summary of Today's BroadcastRFE/RL Persian ServiceTuesday, July 09, 2002 - Anniversary of police attack on student dorms - No early release for Ahmad Batebi, says his father - Demonstrations in Australia in support of Iranian students - Siamak's Pourzand's daughter to appeal to Madonna - Labor law reform - Money supply boosts inflation - Censors slow down book review process Demonstrations on the Anniversary of Police Attack on University Dorms * An interior ministry spokesman said today no student organization has received a permit to stage demonstrations on the third anniversary of the July 9 police attack on Tehran University student dorms. Daftar-e Tahkim-e Vahdat, the largest pro-reform student organization, said it would instead gather its supporters by the tombs of four dead student activists. Some members of the Daftar criticized the interior ministry for refusing the permit. Meanwhile, another student organization, Students' Democratic Front, headed by activist Heshmatollah Tabarzadi, begins a demonstration this evening at 7:00 in front of the university gates. (Siavash Ardalan) Jailed Student Batebi's Father Says He Would Not Be Released Early * In an interview with RFE/RL, the father of the jailed Tehran University student Ahmad Batebi says his pleas to Islamic Republic officials could not secure his son's early release. Batebi was arrested and sentenced to death after July 1999 student demonstrations because his picture holding up a bloody tee shirt appeared on the cover of the London's Economist. His death sentence was commuted to 15 years in prison on appeal. Batebi's father says his son, who became physically and mentally ill as a result of the torture he received after his initial arrest, is allowed phone contact with the outside world and can have regular visitors. (Siavash Ardalan) Demonstrators in Australia Support the Students in Iran * Demonstrators in Sydney tell RFE/RL that by their gathering on the anniversary of the July 9 police attack on student dorms they want to generate awareness in Australia about the demands of the students in Iran. (Jamshid Adili, Sydney) Siamak Pourzand's Daughter Appeals to Pop Celebrities * Banafsheh Pourzand, 41, daughter of the jailed journalist Siamak Pourzand says she is trying to get support for her father's cause from famous celebrities, such as pop singer Madonna and film director Martin Scorsese. She tells RFE/RL from New York that she has received the support of some of the sons and daughters of the Islamic Republic for her father's release from jail. (Alireza Taheri) Labor Law Reform: Two Points of View * In meetings with labor and employers representatives, the government is considering reforming the labor law. RFE/RL's Paris-based economic commentator says Iran's labor law is heavily influenced by socialist ideas. It makes employing workers too and scares away investment. Tehran-based journalist Ali Haqi says changes in the labor law are inevitable, but instead of the workers, the government appears to be favoring the employers in its intended reform. (Fereydoun Zarnegar) Growth in Money Supply Boosts Inflation * According to Iran's central bank, prices of consumer goods and services rose by 14.3 percent last spring as compared to the year before. RFE/RL's Paris-based economic commentator Fereydoun Khavand says the high inflation is a result of last year's 29 percent growth in the money supply, which is expected to grow by 32 to 42 percent this year as a result of unification of the exchange rates. In Iran, well-connected bazaar merchants and religious institutions profit from inflation, which has intensified the extreme inequities in the society. (Fereydoun Zarnegar) Censors Slow Down Books' Permit Process * An official of the ministry of culture acknowledged that issuing publishing permits to books in the fields of literature, history, religion and philosophy has been effectively halted after the judiciary banned four previously-permitted books and summoned to court the ministry's censors who had originally passed the four books. According to Majid Saidi, head of the book censorship office, the culture ministry has little control over the speed of the book censors' work since they are free-lancers. Quoting book publishers, the reformist daily Noruz reported today that no permits are being issued for books in literature, religion and philosophy. (Mehdi Khalaji) Iran Could Facilitate US Attack on Iraq * Iran could facilitate a possible US attack on Iraq by cooperatiing with the US or at least by maintaining an actively neutral position, says Tehran University international law professor Davud Hermidas-Bavand. He tells RFE/RL that a US-backed democratic federal government in Iraq would affect countries around it, including Iran. It may cause some countries to become more democratic. A regime change in Iraq would lower oil prices by increasing supply. It would also strengthen the US presence in the region. (Shahran Tabari) WORLD * The UN-Iraq talks in Vienna fail to produce results. (Homayoun Majd, Washington) * In an interview with RFE/RL, Arab League spokesman Talat Hamed says Arab countries would not support a US attack on Iraq. (Jamshid Chalangi) * US and Afghan investigators confirm air attack on a wedding party in Oruzgan Province of Afghanistan. US say no compensation would be paid to survivors since US planes responded to an attack. (Homayoun Majd, Washington) * Three social democrats resign from Turkish prime minister Bulent Ecevit's cabinet. (Fariba Mavedat, London) * Fifty-three African nations approved in a gathering at Durban, South Africa, to replace the Organization of African Unity with African Union, fashioned after the European Union. (Jean Khakzad, Paris) * Russia would soon replace Venezuela and Saudi Arabia as main supplier of oil to the US. By relying on Russian oil, the US plans to weaken the OPEC and other regional cartels, writes Moscow's Itogi newspaper. (Mani Kasravi) * Former president Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani's eldest son Mohsen will soon become Tehran's ambassador to Germany, writes Frankfurter Rundschau. (Shahram Mirian, Cologne) * German government says the number of asylum seekers fell by 12 percent during the first six months of this year, as compared with the same period last year. The fourth highest number of refugees came from Iran, after Iraq, Turkey and former Yugoslavia. (Shahram Mirian, Cologne) * US researchers say a vaccine against AIDS would go on sale by 2004. (Ahmad Ra'fat, Rome) * In a speech at a Wall Street meeting this morning, President Bush announced measures to restore trust in the US corporations. (Homayoun Majd, Washington) ARTS AND IDEAS Love Stories from Ferdowsi's Shahnameh: Siavash and Sudabeh * Sadredin Elahi continues his recitation of the tragic story of Sudabeh's love for her stepson Siavash. Weekly Review of Books with Kamran Fani * RFE/RL's Tehran-based book critic Kamran Fani reviews four books published last week in Tehran. These include Persian translations of a book on the pre-Islamic Persian prophet Mazdak and Tony Lane's Christian Thought; Ghazali and the Ishmaelite's Views on Philosophy and Politics, by Karimi Zanjani; and Rumi Bibligoraphy by Mandana Sadiq-Behzadi. Poetry Reading: Akhavan Sales * The prominent contemporary poet Mehdi Akhavan Sales reads his famous poem "Qasedak."شهران طبري (راديوآزادي): سخنان پرزيدنت بوش در مورد سرنگوني نظام عراق سخن تازه اي نيست. مدتهاست ايالات متحده آمريكا صدام حسين را خطري نسبت به صلح منطقه مي داند. با اين حال، بسياري از تحليلگران مسائل منطقه معتقدند سرنگوني او اگرچه از نظر عملي غيرممكن نيست، به دليل عدم تمرين دمكراسي در عراق، يافتن جانشيني كه بتواند در عين تعهد به اصول دمكراتيك حكومت باثباتي در كشور برقرار كند كار دشواري است. همچنين اين كار از آن نظر مشكل است كه مناسبات اجتماعي موجود در منطقه را بر هم مي زند. در مورد تاثير آن بر ايران از دكتر داودهرميداس باوند، استاد حقوق بين الملل دانشگاه تهران مي پرسم: وقتي در سال 1999 آمريكا و بريتانيا به عراق حمله كردند، ايران موضع بي طرفي گرفت. با توجه به اينكه ايران هنوز با عراق قرارداد صلح ندارد، فكر مي كنيد اگر آمريكا به عراق حمله كند، موقعيت استراتژيك ايران چه شكل پيدا خواهد كرد؟ دكتر داود هرميداس باوند (استاد دانشگاه تهران): ايران داراي اهميت استراتژيك دارد و در همان 1991 هم نوعي همكاري هاي تلويحي صورت گرفت و اين بار هم من فكر مي كنم كه يك فرصتي است جديد براي ايران و با ملاحظه به سوابق رژيم عراق و برخوردش با ايران و آثار مخرب و منفي كه برجاي گذاشته ايران ممكن است يك راه همسوئي را در پيش بگيرد و اگر بخواهدبيطرفي اتخاذ كند، بيطرفي فعال خواهد بود. شهران طبري: يعني شما معتقديد كه ايران تسهيل مي كند راه حمله به عراق را؟ داودهرميداس باوند: فكر مي كنم، بله. يك همسوئي كه به نوعي تسهيل عمليات خواهد بود در پيش خواهد گرفت. شهران طبري: آقاي دكتر، تاثير حمله نظامي آمريكا به عراق يك تاثير اقتصادي براي كشورهاي منطقه خواهد داشت. مسئله نفت يكي اش است، به طورعمده. فكر مي كنيد با توجه به اينكه روسيه آن نقش سابق را درمنطقه ندارد، نقشه سياسي منطقه بعد از حمله به عراق دچار چه تغييراتي خواهد شد؟ داود هرميداس باوند: بسته به اين است كه نظام سياسي كه حاكم بر عراق خواهد شد به چه شكل تحقق پيدا خواهد كرد. اگر يك نظام فدرال دمكراتيك برقرار بشود، از لحاظ سياسي به طرز گريزناپذيري بر جوامع و كشورهاي منطقه تاثير مي گذارد، نه تنها كشورهاي عربي بلكه همسايگان عراق، من جمله ايران. و يقينا تغييرات و دگرگوني هائي را در ساختار كشورهاي به ويژه عربي ايجاد خواهد كرد و در ديگر همسايگان هم بي تاثير نخواهد بود. از لحاظ اقتصادي اين تحريم ها پايان داده مي شود و توليدات نفتي عراق به صورت گسترده وارد بازار مي شود و در عرضه و تقاضاي بازار انرژي تاثير مي كند و نكته ديگر حضور آمريكا و تثبيت بيشتر جايگاه آمريكا در منطقه خواهد شد. شهران طبري: خيلي ها صحبت از اين مي كنند كه ايران از يك طرف افغانستان را در همسايگي دارد و باحضور آمريكا در آنجا، اگر در عراق هم يك نظام هوادار آمريكا مستقر شود، ايران بين دو نظامي كه طرفدار آمريكا هستند خواهد افتاد. فكر مي كنيد اين چه تغييراتي در... دكتر هرميداس باوند: فكر مي كنم حوادث ديكته كنند... به هرحال تغييرات در هرجامعه اي خواهد بود و همانطور كه در ابتدا اشاره كردم، بدون ترديد اين تغييرات اثرات گريزناپذير خود را در وضع كشورهاي منطقه برجاي خواهد گذاشت و شرايط به نحوي تغيير مي كند كه در جهت تعديل و تغيير كه منطبق با نظم و نسق با ارزش هاي روز باشد شكل بگيرد. من در هرحال فكرمي كنم ك، هر چند حنگ در هر شكلي نامطلوب است، اما به عنوان يك فرصت جديدي برخي از كشورها بتوانند استفاده بهينه بكنند در جهت حل مسائل و مشكلات خودشان و در عين حال در جهت تغيير و تعديل روش دمكراتيك و مردمي.

دکتر داود هرميداس باوند، استاد حقوق بين‌الملل دانشگاه تهران، در مصاحبه با راديو آزادي مي‌گويد: حمله نظامي آمريكا به عراق فرصتي است جديد براي ايران كه ممكن است راه همسوئي با آمريكا را در پيش بگيرد و اگر بخواهد بيطرفي اتخاذ كند، بيطرفي فعال خواهد بود. وي مي افزايد: در هرحال اين حمله را تسهيل خواهد كرد. هرميداس باوند همچنين مي گويد: برقراري يك حكومت فدرال دمكراتيك در عراق، از لحاظ سياسي به طرز گريزناپذيري بر ساختار جوامع و كشورهاي منطقه، از جمله ايران تاثير مي گذارد. وي مي افزايد: تغيير رژيم عراق باعث پائين آمدن قيمت نفت در بازارهاي جهاني و تثبيت بيشتر جايگاه آمريكا در منقطه خواهد شد.

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