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جمعه ۷ آبان ۱۳۹۵ تهران ۱۴:۰۶ - ۲۸ اکتبر ۲۰۱۶

ايران در آستانه آشفتگي يا انفجار: خواسته هاي نسل فراصنعتي

سياوش اردلان، مصاحبه با سعيد حقي (تهران)

Summary of Today's BroadcastRFE/RL Persian ServiceSaturday, May 18, 2002 - Social Unrest or Explosion: Demands of the Post-Industrial Generation - Azerbaijan President Aliyev Visits Iran - Pakistan-Iran Agree to Help in Afghanistan's Reconstruction - US-Iran Relations: Three Points of View - Opposition Leader Calls Pourzand's Detention Un-Islamic - Human Rights Activists Stage Protest at UN NY Headquarters - Japan-Iran Dispute over 19 Buddha Statues - Iranian Films at Cannes Film Festival Social Unrest or Explosion: Demands of the Post-Industrial Generation * President Mohammad Khatami said last week that Iran is on the verge of social unrest, and conservative Ayatollah Ebrahim Amini said Thursday that the country is at the threshold of explosion. But Tehran-based political analyst Said Haqi says that government officials and religious leaders miss the point by seeing rising joblessness as the cause of potential turmoil. He tells RFE/RL that the ten-fold rise in the number of college educated Iranians to 10 million within the past 20 years has changed the character of the society. A new, post-industrial generation - the so-called Third Wave -- demands an all-inclusive democracy and a greater role in the leadership of the country for technocrats, rather than politicians. This generation will not be satisfied with such industrial era solutions as more jobs and better housing. (Siavash Ardalan) Azerbaijan President Aliyev Visits Iran * President Heydar Aliyev of Azerbaijan arrived in Tehran on Saturday for a three-day visit which had been postponed three times during the past nine months, due to the disputes between the two governments over three issues: the Caspian legal regime, Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict and the future of the Nagorno Karabakh enclave. Demands by some Azeri parties, including President Aliyev's own party, for the annexation of the Iranian Azerbaijan to the Azeri republic further complicates the Iran-Azeri relations, and is probably the reason Iran does not allow Azerbaijan to open a consulate in Tabriz. The disagreement over the division of the Caspian resources would probably remain unresolved by the end of Aliyev's trip. (Alireza Taheri) Pakistan-Iran Agree to Help in Afghanistan's Reconstruction * In a meeting in Tehran under the auspices of the UN, Pakistani and Iranian officials discussed ways to cooperate on Afghanistan. The two countries enjoy better relations after the fall of Taliban. (Fariba Mavedat) US-Iran Relations: Three Points of View In interviews with RFE/RL, three US-based Iranian professors comment about the Leader of Islamic Republic Ayatollah Khamenei's assertion that Iran would not benefit from relations with the US. * Mahmud Monshipouri, political science professor at Alma College, Michigan, says normalizing relations with the US would serve Iran's national interests. US relations could help Iran resolve the dispute over the Caspian's legal regime and gain admission to the World Trade Organization. * Hamid Zanganeh, political science professor at Widener University, Chester, PA, says Iranian officials brag of powers they do not have. He says Iran has normalized relations with countries such as Iraq that have caused more damage to Iran than the US. He says the Iranian officials childishly assume that the US cannot survive without relations with Iran. The best thing that the Islamic Republic can do for Iran is to resolve its dispute with the US. * Reza Ghoreishi, economy professor at New Jersey's Stockton College, says the conservative faction has nothing but anti-Americanism and agreeing to talks with the US would be the end of this faction. The reformists on the other hand are insincere in their demands for the resumption of talks with the US. Unlike what Iranian officials believe, having relations with Iran is not a priority for the US. (Fereydoun Zarnegar) Montazeri Calls Pourzand's Detention Un-Islamic * In a statement issued in Qum, Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, the highest-ranking Shiite cleric opposing the current leadership of the Islamic Republic, said that the detention of the veteran journalist Siamak Pourzand is against Islamic principles. Hundreds signed a petition on the Internet demanding Pourzand's immediate release. Paris-based Reporters sans Frontiers once again expressed worry about Pourzand's health. (Jean Khakzad, Paris) Human Rights Activists Stage Protest Opposite UN Headquarters in New York * Ruzbeh Farahanipur, secretary general of the human rights activist organization Hezb-e Marz-e Por Gohar tells RFE/RL that by symbolically chaining him to a statue in front of the UN headquarters in New York this morning, his fellow demonstrators protested against the failure of the UN Human Rights Commission to pass a resolution condemning the Islamic Republic's human rights abuses. He says the fact that the US was missing from the UNHRC's Geneva meeting this year may have been a factor in the rejection of the UNHRC resolution. (Homayoun Majd, Washington) Japan-Iran Dispute over 19 Buddha Statues Found in Central Iran * A Japanese archaeologist said the discovery of the 19 Buddha statues in the province of Fars in Iran proves the spread of Buddhism to that area. Iranian officials say the statues were stolen from Afghanistan before the revolution. (Alireza Taheri) Iranian Films at Cannes Film Festival * Paris-based film critic Mohammad Haqiqat says this year's Cannes film festival shows 44 films in its two main programs, which were selected from more 2000 submission. Three films by Iranian directors, including Ten, the latest feature by the former Cannes Golden Palm winner Abbas Kiarostami. (Jean Khakzad, Paris) WORLD * India expels Pakistan's ambassador over border conflicts in Kashmir. (Alireza Taheri) * Arafat says the Palestinian Authority will hold no elections until the Israeli forces leave. (Jamshid Chalangi, Cairo) * The US sends the CIA director to the Middle East, but Israel says no mediation would work until Arafat leaves office. (Homayoun Majd, Washington) * Iraq agrees to implement the UN Security Council resolution 1409. (Farideh Rahbar, Cairo) * Head of the UN weapons inspection team tells German newspapers that allowing the team to return is the only solution left for Iraq. (Shahram Mirian, Cologne) * Russia plans to increase its oil exports within two months. (Mani Kasravi, Moscow) * President Bush says if he had advance knowledge of the September 11 attack, he would have done everything in his power to stop it. (Homayoun Majd, Washington) * Russia improves relations with the US as Tehran-Moscow relations deteriorates over the Caspian Sea. (Fariba Mavedat, based on AP) * President Jimmy Carter returns from his trip to Cuba, during which he called for lifting of the US sanctions against that country. But President Bush prepares himself to announce tougher policies on Cuba in his upcoming Miami trip, where Cuban immigrants support the sanctions. * East Timor joins the UN. (Shahram Mirian, Cologne) * Egypt's foreign minister visits Moscow. (Farideh Rahbar, Cairo) ARTS & IDEAS New York Magazine Christie's Exhibit of Contemporary Iranian Art in London * The unprecedented major exhibit of Iranian contemporary art at Christie's galleries in London could help create a world wide market for the work of living Iranian artists, according to painter and art critic Aydin Aghdashlou. He tells RFE/RL that three experts from Christie's went to Iran to select works for the exhibition. The exhibits two opening parties on Sunday and Monday is expected to draw more than 5000 artists and art buyers from all over Europe. (Behnam Nateghi) Cannes Film Festival: Kiarostami * Veteran filmmaker and former winner of the Golden Palm Award Abbas Kiarsostami tells RFE/RL about Ten, his latest features shot entirely on video, which will be screened in the official competition section at the Cannes film festival. (Behnam Nateghi) Weekly medical advice program. (Dr. Mansur Moslehi, Los Angeles) Classic Love Stories: Khosrow va Shirin * Sadredin Elahi continues his recitation of Khosrow va Shirin by Nezami Ganjavi. History of Persian Progressive Music * Mahmud Khoshnam reviews the work of the prominent pianist and composer.

در حاليكه رئيس جمهوري اسلامي جامعه ايران را در آستانه آشفتگي توصيف كرد، آيت الله اميني، يك مرجع تقليد محافظه كار، جامعه ايران را در حال انفجار دانست. سعيد حقي، تحليلگر سياسي در تهران، در مصاحبه با راديوآزادي مي گويد: هشدار در باره وخامت اوضاع، براي نخستين بار سال گذشته توسط سعيد حجاريان، معاون سابق وزارت اطلاعات و امنيت و مشاور كنوني رئيس جمهوري اسلامي مطرح شد. وي مي افزايد: در حال حاضر دست اندركاران، بيكاري فراگير را عامل اصلي نابساماني هاي اجتماعي مي دانند، در حاليكه افزايش تعداد ليسانسيه ها طي 24 سال اخير از 700 هزار نفر به 10 ميليون نفر كيفيت جامعه ايران را تغيير داده است. نسل تازه اي به نام نسل موج سومي يا فراصنعتي، سربركرده است كه خواهان دمكراسي فراگير و افزايش نقش تكنوكرات ها و كاسته شدن شديد نقش سياستمداران در اداره جامعه است. حقي مي افزايد: مسئولين، به جاي برخورد با اصل مسئله، با معلول هاي آن، از جمله بيكاري، برخورد مي كنند.

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