اميرمصدق كاتوزيان، مصاحبه با زيبا كلام، شعله سعدي، جعفريان و تقي رحماني (تهران)
Summary of Today's BroadcastRFE/RL Persian ServiceFriday, May 10, 2002
- Four analysts review Khatami's resignation threat
- Nowruz publisher decides not to appeal his jail sentence
- Judiciary jails district mayor for safety negligence
- Crisis in Iran's oil industry
- Halt of gas and electricity exports to Turkey
- Iran's 50 percent share of the Caspian
Khatami's Resignation Threat: Failure of the Reform Movement
In another sharp criticism of his right wing opponents, President Khatami said yesterday that national unity cannot be achieved through suppressing people's demands. Last week Khatami threatened to resign if he sees his promised reforms fail to materialize. Four analysts in Tehran comment on Khatami's latest complaints in interviews with RFE/RL.
* Tehran University political science professor Sadeq Zibakalam says Khatami would never resign because he does not want to endanger the regime's stability. The resignation threat is only a maneuver aimed at persuading his conservative opponents to reduce their pressures. Unlike Hashemi Rafsanjani and the conservative faction, Khatami believes that the success of economic development depends on political reform. Based on past experience, Zibakalam predicts that Khatami will tone down his position in the coming days.
* Former Majles MP and political analyst Qasem Sholehsadi says the reason for Khatami's disparaging tone is the public's dwindling trust in the reformists. Khatami knows better than anyone that reforms have failed and that the Islamic Republic regime would not last without the reforms. Khatami was overly cautious in saying the society is "on the verge of unrest." Social unrest may bring the current regime to a final collapse. Khatami's weakness is his unwillingness to pay a price for achieving his reforms.
* Conservative journalist Mohammad Hussein Jafarian says Khatami cannot be too upset with the Judiciary, since during the past few weeks the Judiciary has shown restraint. Khatami's attack is aimed at a trend within the reform faction. By demanding 50 percent of the Caspian resources, some Majles MPs have created a public demand which the government cannot fulfill.
* Nationalist-religious activist Taqi Rahmani says Khatami's lack of candor and the fact that the target of his criticism remains unknown lead to conflicting interpretations. Rahmani urges Khatami to capitalize on his 20-million votes and deal, from a position of power, with those who resist the popular will. (Amir-Mosaddegh Katouzian)
Aftermath of the Press Court's Ban on Nowruz
* Reformist MP Mohsen Mirdamadi, head of the Majles national security and foreign relations committee who was sentenced to four months in prison yesterday as the publisher of the daily Nowruz, will not appeal his jail sentence, according to Karim Arghandehpour, deputy director of the press union. Mirdamadi's jail sentence was an outcome of factional conflict over relations with the US, writes London's al-Hayat. A day before the press court banned his newspaper, Mirdamadi said relations with the US would be beneficial to Iran's national interest. (Ardavan Niknam, Prague; Farideh Rahbar, Cairo)
Judiciary Jails District Mayor and His Deputies over Schoolgirls' Fatal Boating Accident
* Charged with negligence in the case of last week's central park boating accident that killed 6 schoolgirls and their teacher, the mayor of Tehran's 12th district and his deputies went to jail yesterday after refusing to pay bail. The officials in charge of awarding the central park boating concession were also charged. The true culprits are safety officials, says journalist Masud Mohajer. He tells RFE/RL that lack of safety regulations, equipment and training are widespread in Iran. Public trials of city officials, he adds, are only a measure to calm enraged public opinion. (Shireen Famili)
Iranian Oil Industry on the Verge of Collapse, Says Russia's Caspian Magazine
* Mismanagement, foreign policy, factional conflicts and unproductive investments threaten Iran's oil industry--the country's bloodline--with crisis, according to Caspian magazine published by Russia's oil ministry. Iran's oil production capacity has been declining by 250,000 bpd annually in the past few years, Caspian adds. (Mani Kasravi, Moscow)
Iran Halts Gas and Power Exports to Turkey
* For lack of payment, Iran halts the export of its natural gas and electricity to Turkey. Iran had planned to use its pipeline to Turkey for gas exports to Greece, but it faces tough competition from Russia in Greece and other European markets. (Shireen Famili)
Islamic Republic Fails to Claim Iran's 50% Share of the Caspian
* Based on the treaties between Iran and the former Soviet Union, Iran's share of the Caspian Sea is 50 percent-and Iran should not give up the idea of that share easily, writes Washington-based lawyer and Central Asia energy expert, Bahman Aghai Diba in an article for Payvand Internet site. (Fariba Mavedat)
* Israeli forces end siege at Bethlehem's Nativity church. (Jamshid Chalangi, Cairo)
* Israel's foreign minister Shimon Peres visits Italy. (Ahmad Ra'fat, Rome)
* US demands fundamental reforms in the Palestinian Authority's political structure. (Jamshid Chalangi, Cairo)
* Islamic faction in Kuwait's parliament seeks to impeach that country's economic minister who supports women's rights. (Farideh Rahbar, Cairo)
* French secret police and the FBI investigate the suicide bombing in Karachi that killed 15 French submarine engineers. (Jean Khakzad, Paris)
* The head of soccer federation FIFA is charged with corruption. (Jean Khakzad, Paris)
ARTS AND IDEAS
Veteran Humorist Khosrow Shahani Dies in Tehran
* Khosrow Shahani died in Tehran Friday morning after a long struggle with prostate cancer. Prominent London-based satirist Hadi Khorsandi says Shahani's best work appeared before the revolution in the weekly Khandaniha. He tells RFE/RL that sadly Shahani was under appreciated as a short story writer, even though his writing is as good as the celebrated leftist writer Gholam-Hossein Saedi. (Shahran Tabari, London)
Red Meat Diet and Prostate Cancer
* Dr. Angelo Dimarzo of Johns Hopkins Hospital tells RFE/RL that new studies show men who eat a lot of red meat have a higher risk of developing prostate cancer. (Jamshid Zand)
Bohemian Rhapsody Beats Imagine as Most Popular Song
* Queen's 6-minute song Bohemian Rhapsody tops the Guinness Book of Records' list of the most popular songs in England's history, replacing Imagine by John Lennon. (Ardavan Niknam)
Travel Writings of Foreign Travelers to Iran
* English officer William Franklin, who visited Iran in the 18th Century, writes about the competition for power among Karimkhan Zand's heirs. (Nazi Azima, based on research by Javad Tabatabai, Paris)
In Memory of the Beloved Departed: Badiozaman Foruzanfar, Poet, Scholar
* On the 32nd anniversary of poet and literary scholar professor Badiozaman Foruzanfar's death, RFE/RL interviews three of his colleagues: Ahmad Mahdavi Damghani, Jalal Matini and Mohammad Estelami. (Nazi Azima)
Kardovani's Research on Two Anti-Shah Opposition Organizations
* Writer Kazem Kardovani tells RFE/RL about his new research on the Iranian Students' Confederation and Iranian Writers Association, two organizations that opposed the Shah. (Shahram Mirian, Cologne)
Classical Love Stories: The Domes
* Sadredin Elahi concludes his 13-part recitation of the Legend of Domes from Haft-Peykar by Nezami Ganjavi.
The World of Music
* RFE/RL's music critic discusses the work of songwriter Ardalan Sarfaraz and plays music from Madonna's new album. (Mahmoud Khoshnam)
* Iraj Gorgin reads from literary Persian texts.
محمد خاتمي رئيس جمهوري اسلامي هفته پيش تهديد كرد كه در صورتي كه احساس كند دولت از روند اصلاحات منحرف شده است، استعفا خواهد داد. وي ديروز گفت وفاق ملي، يا به عبارت ديگر مصالحه دو جناح هيات حاكمه جمهوري اسلامي، ازطريق سركوب ساختن خواست هاي مردم به دست نمي آيد. صادق زيبا كلام، استاد علوم سياسي دانشگاه تهران در مصاحبه با راديوآزادي مي گويد خاتمي براي جلوگيري از به هم ريختن ثبات حكومت ايران به تهديد خود مبني بر استعفا عمل نخواهد كرد. وي تهديدخاتمي به استعفا را يك مانور براي تشويق جناح راست به كاستن از فشارها توصيف مي كند. زيباكلام مي گويد برخلاف هاشمي رفسنجاني و محافظه كاران، خاتمي عقيده دارد كه موفقيت در اصلاحات اقتصادي بدون توسعه سياسي امكان ندارد. زيبا كلام پيش بيني مي كند كه خاتمي در روز هاي آينده به تعديل مواضع خود بپردازد. قاسم شعله سعدي، تحليلگرسياسي در تهران، درمصاحبه با راديوآزادي مي گويد: دليل انتقادات خاتمي سست شدن اعتماد مردم به اصلاح طلبان است. وي مي افزايد خاتمي بهتر از هركسي مي داند روند اصلاحات با شكست مواجه شده است و نظام جمهوري اسلامي بدون اصلاحات قابل دوام نيست. شعله سعدي مي گويد: خاتمي با ملاحظه كاري به جاي واژه فروپاشي از واژه آشفتگي استفاده كرد كه مي تواند مقدمه فروپاشي حكومت كنوني در ايران باشد. وي مي افزايد: نقطه ضعف خاتمي اين است كه حاضر نيست براي تحقق اصلاحات و برنامه هاي خود كوچكترين هزينه اي را متحمل شود. محمدحسين جعفريان، روزنامه نگار نزديك به جناح محافظه كار، در مصاحبه با راديوآزادي مي گويد خاتمي نمي تواند از قوه قضائيه "خيلي ناراضي" باشد زيرا اين قوه در هفته هاي اخير روش ملايمتري در پيش گرفته است. جعفريان مي افزايد: انتقاد خاتمي متوجه گرايشي در درون جناح اصلاح طلبان است. وي مي افزايد مطرح شدن بحث 50 درصدسهم ايران از درياي خزر توسط بعضي از نمايندگان اصلاح طلب توقع هائي را ايجاد كرده است كه دولت خاتمي از برآوردكردن آنها عاجز است. تقي رحماني، تحليلگر سياسي ملي -مذهبي، تفسيرهاي متضاد از گفته هاي خاتمي را ناشي از عدم صراحت او و ناشناس ماندن مخاطب انتقادات وي مي داند. وي مي افزايد: خاتمي بايد به اتكاي به آراي مردم به خود او و به نمايندگان مجلس، از موضع قدرت در مقابل كساني كه با خواست عمومي مردم مخالفت مي كند، مقاومت كند.